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AZ W vs Excelsior W Prediction— Netherlands - Eredivisie Women

Regular Season - 22 ·Friday, May 22, 2026, 18:00

AZ W

PPG 0.70 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Excelsior W

PPG 0.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.5%0-13.1%0-22.0%0-30.8%0-4+0.4%1 1-06.0%1-17.6%1-24.8%1-32.1%1-4+0.9%2 2-07.3%2-19.3%2-25.9%2-32.5%2-4+1.0%3 3-05.9%3-17.5%3-24.8%3-32.0%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-06.4%4+-18.1%4+-25.2%4+-32.2%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.0% — — —

Draw 23.6% — — —

Away win 22.4% — — —

Over 2.5 63.9% — — —

Over 3.5 50.7% — — —

BTTS 59.7% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 76%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 59%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob59.7%

H 54% / xG 2.4-1.3 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.3%

#2 1–1 7.6%

#3 3–1 7.5%

#4 2–0 7.3%

#5 3–0 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

AZ W2.4

Excelsior W1.3

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 50.7%

Form & verdict PPG

AZ W · PPG 0.70

EXCELSIOR W · PPG 0.40

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.70), Away POOR (0.40)

Win probability 1X2

AZ W (H) 54.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 23.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Excelsior W (A) 22.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

AZ W face Excelsior W in Netherlands - Eredivisie Women on Friday, May 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives AZ W a 54% chance, the draw 24% and Excelsior W 22%, so AZ W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for AZ W and 1.3 for Excelsior W (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, AZ W are averaging 0.70 points per game versus 0.40 for Excelsior W. This match finished 1-0.

AZ W vs Excelsior W Prediction— Netherlands - Eredivisie Women

Match Preview & Prediction

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