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HERA vs Utrecht W Prediction— Netherlands - Eredivisie Women

Regular Season - 22 ·Friday, May 22, 2026, 18:00

HERA

PPG 0.67 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Utrecht W

PPG 1.70 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.3%0-16.6%0-26.7%0-34.5%0-4+3.6%1 1-04.6%1-19.3%1-29.4%1-36.3%1-4+5.1%2 2-03.2%2-16.5%2-26.5%2-34.4%2-4+3.5%3 3-01.5%3-13.0%3-23.0%3-32.0%3-4+1.6%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-11.4%4+-21.4%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.7% — — —

Draw 25.2% — — —

Away win 46.2% — — —

Over 2.5 63.9% — — —

Over 3.5 44.4% — — —

BTTS 59.7% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 76%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob59.7%

A 46% / xG 1.4-2.0 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.3%

#2 1–2✓ 9.4%

#3 0–2 6.7%

#4 2–2 6.5%

#5 2–1 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

HERA1.4

Utrecht W2.0

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 44.4%

Form & verdict PPG

HERA · PPG 0.67

UTRECHT W · PPG 1.70

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.70) vs Home POOR (0.67)

Win probability 1X2

HERA (H) 28.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 25.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Utrecht W (A) 46.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

HERA face Utrecht W in Netherlands - Eredivisie Women on Friday, May 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives HERA a 29% chance, the draw 25% and Utrecht W 46%, so Utrecht W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for HERA and 2.0 for Utrecht W (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, HERA are averaging 0.67 points per game versus 1.70 for Utrecht W. This match finished 1-2.

HERA vs Utrecht W Prediction— Netherlands - Eredivisie Women

Match Preview & Prediction

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