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Goias vs São Bernardo Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Matchday 25 ·Friday, August 28, 2026, 22:30

Goias

PPG 1.73 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLDW

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

São Bernardo

PPG 1.82 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLDDL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.5% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.9%0-111.5%0-27.5%0-33.2%0-4+1.4%1 1-010.0%1-113.0%1-28.4%1-33.6%1-4+1.6%2 2-05.6%2-17.3%2-24.7%2-32.0%2-4+0.9%3 3-02.1%3-12.7%3-21.8%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.0%4+-20.6%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.0% 53.5% 1.87 -36.4%

Draw 27.7% 30.3% 3.30 -5.1%

Away win 38.3% 23.1% 4.33 +65.8%

Over 2.5 49.7% 45.5% 2.20 +9.3%

Over 3.5 28.7% 23.8% 4.20 +12.3%

BTTS 52.5% 51.3% 1.95 +2.4%

Home O1.5 31.1% 47.6% 2.10 -34.7%

Away O1.5 37.1% 25.6% 3.90 +44.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 171 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 58%

ROI 18.7%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 17%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob52.5%

A 38% / xG 1.1-1.3 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.0%

#2 0–0 8.9%

#3 0–1 11.5%

#4 1–0 10.0%

#5 1–2 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Goias1.1

São Bernardo1.3

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.7% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

GOIAS · PPG 1.73

SÃO BERNARDO · PPG 1.82

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.17, combined xG 2.42 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Goias (H) 34.0%

ODDS 1.87 · IMPLIED 53.5% EV -36.4%

Draw 27.7%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -5.1%

São Bernardo (A) 38.3%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV +65.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Goias face São Bernardo in Brazil - Serie B on Friday, August 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Goias a 34% chance, the draw 28% and São Bernardo 38%, so São Bernardo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Goias and 1.3 for São Bernardo (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Goias are averaging 1.73 points per game versus 1.82 for São Bernardo. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +48.9%. This match finished 2-1.

Goias vs São Bernardo Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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