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Wealdstone vs Carlisle Prediction— England - National League

Matchday 4 ·Friday, August 28, 2026, 18:45

Wealdstone

PPG 1.36 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLDW

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Carlisle

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDWDW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 62.6% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.0%0-17.0%0-26.2%0-33.6%0-4+2.4%1 1-05.8%1-110.3%1-29.0%1-35.3%1-4+3.5%2 2-04.2%2-17.5%2-26.6%2-33.9%2-4+2.5%3 3-02.1%3-13.6%3-23.2%3-31.9%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.8%4+-21.6%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 32.3% 33.3% 3.00 -3.1%

Draw 23.2% 27.8% 3.60 -9.9%

Away win 44.4% 48.8% 2.05 -9.0%

Over 2.5 62.6% 63.7% 1.57 -1.7%

Over 3.5 39.3% 41.7% 2.40 -5.7%

BTTS 62.3% 69.0% 1.45 -9.7%

Home O1.5 40.1% 45.5% 2.20 -11.8%

Away O1.5 47.9% 56.5% 1.77 -15.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 53%

ROI 35.2%

Bet Hit 83%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 44%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob62.3%

A 44% / xG 1.5-1.8 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 10.3%

#2 1–2 9.0%

#3 2–1 7.5%

#4 0–2 6.2%

#5 2–2 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Wealdstone1.5

Carlisle1.8

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.6% · O3.5 PROB 39.3%

Form & verdict PPG

WEALDSTONE · PPG 1.36

CARLISLE · PPG 1.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.30 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Wealdstone (H) 32.3%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -3.1%

Draw 23.2%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -9.9%

Carlisle (A) 44.4%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -9.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Wealdstone face Carlisle in England - National League on Friday, August 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Wealdstone a 32% chance, the draw 23% and Carlisle 44%, so Carlisle are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Wealdstone and 1.8 for Carlisle (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Wealdstone are averaging 1.36 points per game versus 1.67 for Carlisle. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +5.3%. This match finished 1-1.

Wealdstone vs Carlisle Prediction— England - National League

Match Preview & Prediction

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