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Scunthorpe vs Solihull Moors Prediction— England - National League

Matchday 4 ·Friday, August 28, 2026, 18:45

Scunthorpe

PPG 1.60 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLWL

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Solihull Moors

PPG 1.10 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLLL 

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 65.4% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.4%0-14.1%0-22.5%0-31.0%0-4+0.4%1 1-07.5%1-18.9%1-25.3%1-32.1%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.1%2-19.7%2-25.8%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-05.9%3-17.0%3-24.2%3-31.7%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-05.3%4+-16.4%4+-23.8%4+-31.5%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.7% 58.8% 1.70 -7.0%

Draw 22.0% 26.7% 3.75 -10.5%

Away win 23.3% 24.4% 4.10 -2.7%

Over 2.5 64.0% 62.5% 1.60 +2.4%

Over 3.5 43.0% 40.0% 2.50 +7.5%

BTTS 60.8% 64.5% 1.55 -5.8%

Home O1.5 65.4% 62.5% 1.60 +4.6%

Away O1.5 35.1% 36.4% 2.75 -3.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 53%

ROI 35.2%

Bet Hit 83%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 54%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob60.8%

H 55% / xG 2.2-1.2 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.9%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 2–0 8.1%

#4 1–2 5.3%

#5 3–1✓ 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Scunthorpe2.2

Solihull Moors1.2

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.0% · O3.5 PROB 43.0%

Form & verdict PPG

SCUNTHORPE · PPG 1.60

SOLIHULL MOORS · PPG 1.10

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.98 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Scunthorpe (H) 54.7%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -7.0%

Draw 22.0%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -10.5%

Solihull Moors (A) 23.3%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -2.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Scunthorpe face Solihull Moors in England - National League on Friday, August 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Scunthorpe a 55% chance, the draw 22% and Solihull Moors 23%, so Scunthorpe are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Scunthorpe and 1.2 for Solihull Moors (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Scunthorpe are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 1.10 for Solihull Moors. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +7.5%. This match finished 3-1.

Scunthorpe vs Solihull Moors Prediction— England - National League

Match Preview & Prediction

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