Today / England - National League / Hartlepool vs Eastleigh

Hartlepool vs Eastleigh Prediction— England - National League

Matchday 4 ·Friday, August 28, 2026, 18:45

Hartlepool

PPG 1.81 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLLL

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Eastleigh

PPG 0.98 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWWD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.7% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.5%0-17.8%0-23.6%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-013.1%1-112.1%1-25.6%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.1%2-19.3%2-24.3%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-05.2%3-14.8%3-22.2%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-12.6%4+-21.2%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.8% 57.8% 1.73 -13.9%

Draw 25.8% 29.0% 3.45 -6.6%

Away win 24.4% 23.8% 4.20 +1.5%

Over 2.5 50.5% 55.6% 1.80 -9.1%

Over 3.5 28.7% 33.3% 3.00 -8.3%

BTTS 52.7% 58.8% 1.70 -10.4%

Home O1.5 43.4% 56.5% 1.77 -23.2%

Away O1.5 25.7% 31.3% 3.20 -10.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 53%

ROI 35.2%

Bet Hit 83%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.7%

H 50% / xG 1.5-0.9 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 1–0 13.1%

#3 2–0 10.1%

#4 2–1 9.3%

#5 0–0 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hartlepool1.5

Eastleigh0.9

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

HARTLEPOOL · PPG 1.81

EASTLEIGH · PPG 0.98

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.62 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Hartlepool (H) 49.8%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -13.9%

Draw 25.8%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -6.6%

Eastleigh (A) 24.4%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +1.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hartlepool face Eastleigh in England - National League on Friday, August 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hartlepool a 50% chance, the draw 26% and Eastleigh 24%, so Hartlepool are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Hartlepool and 0.9 for Eastleigh (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hartlepool are averaging 1.81 points per game versus 0.98 for Eastleigh. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +0.1%. This match finished 0-1.

Hartlepool vs Eastleigh Prediction— England - National League

Match Preview & Prediction

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