Today / England - National League / Gateshead vs Sutton Utd

Gateshead vs Sutton Utd Prediction— England - National League

Matchday 4 ·Friday, August 28, 2026, 18:45

Gateshead

PPG 1.46 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLLL

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Sutton Utd

PPG 1.46 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWWL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.3% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.6%0-110.0%0-27.6%0-33.8%0-4+2.0%1 1-08.0%1-112.0%1-29.1%1-34.6%1-4+2.4%2 2-04.8%2-17.2%2-25.5%2-32.8%2-4+1.5%3 3-01.9%3-12.9%3-22.2%3-31.1%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-11.1%4+-20.9%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.6% 38.2% 2.62 -19.8%

Draw 24.6% 29.9% 3.35 -10.5%

Away win 44.9% 42.0% 2.38 +6.9%

Over 2.5 53.5% 58.8% 1.70 -9.0%

Over 3.5 31.5% 36.4% 2.75 -13.4%

BTTS 54.3% 64.5% 1.55 -15.8%

Home O1.5 32.3% 45.5% 2.20 -28.9%

Away O1.5 45.4% 48.8% 2.05 -6.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 53%

ROI 35.2%

Bet Hit 83%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob54.3%

A 45% / xG 1.2-1.5 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 1–2 9.1%

#3 0–1✓ 10.0%

#4 0–2 7.6%

#5 2–1 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gateshead1.2

Sutton Utd1.5

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 31.5%

Form & verdict PPG

GATESHEAD · PPG 1.46

SUTTON UTD · PPG 1.46

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.31 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Gateshead (H) 30.6%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -19.8%

Draw 24.6%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -10.5%

Sutton Utd (A) 44.9%

ODDS 2.38 · IMPLIED 42.0% EV +6.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gateshead face Sutton Utd in England - National League on Friday, August 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gateshead a 31% chance, the draw 25% and Sutton Utd 45%, so Sutton Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Gateshead and 1.5 for Sutton Utd (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gateshead are averaging 1.46 points per game versus 1.46 for Sutton Utd. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +5.0%. This match finished 0-1.

Gateshead vs Sutton Utd Prediction— England - National League

Match Preview & Prediction

More England - National League Predictions