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Arda vs Ludogorets Prediction— Bulgaria - First League

Wednesday, April 15, 2026

Arda

PPG 1.57 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY

Ludogorets

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 59.2% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.9%0-112.4%0-211.2%0-36.7%0-4+4.5%1 1-06.0%1-110.9%1-29.8%1-35.9%1-4+4.0%2 2-02.6%2-14.7%2-24.3%2-32.6%2-4+1.7%3 3-00.8%3-11.4%3-21.2%3-30.7%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.4%4+-20.3%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 17.9% 15.6% 6.40 +14.6%

Draw 22.9% 27.8% 3.60 -17.6%

Away win 59.2% 66.7% 1.50 -11.2%

Over 2.5 50.0% 46.5% 2.15 +7.5%

Over 3.5 28.0% 25.3% 3.95 +10.6%

BTTS 48.6% 46.5% 2.15 +4.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 6 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 33%

BTTS 33%

Score Hit 17%

ROI -100.0%

Bet Hit 0%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 3 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob48.6%

A 59% / xG 0.9-1.8 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 12.4%

#2 0–2 11.2%

#3 1–1 10.9%

#4 1–2 9.8%

#5 0–0 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Arda0.9

Ludogorets1.8

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 28.0%

Form & verdict PPG

ARDA · PPG 1.57

LUDOGORETS · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: GOOD (1.57) vs Away EXCELLENT (2.00)

Win probability 1X2

Arda (H) 17.9%

ODDS 6.40 · IMPLIED 15.6% EV +14.6%

Draw 22.9%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -17.6%

Ludogorets (A) 59.2%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -11.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Arda face Ludogorets in Bulgaria - First League on Wednesday, April 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Arda a 18% chance, the draw 23% and Ludogorets 59%, so Ludogorets are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Arda and 1.8 for Ludogorets (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Arda are averaging 1.57 points per game versus 2.00 for Ludogorets. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +14.6%. This match finished 1-0.

Arda vs Ludogorets Prediction— Bulgaria - First League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Bulgaria - First League Predictions