Arda vs Ludogorets Prediction— Bulgaria - First League

Bulgaria - First League Wednesday, April 15, 2026 —

Arda PPG 1.57

1-0 MISS

Ludogorets PPG 2.00

Home· +14.6% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

45% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Arda face Ludogorets in Bulgaria - First League on Wednesday, April 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Arda a 18% chance, the draw 23% and Ludogorets 59%, so Ludogorets are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Arda and 1.8 for Ludogorets (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Arda are averaging 1.57 points per game versus 2.00 for Ludogorets. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +14.6%. This match finished 1-0.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 17.9%

Odds: 6.40 EV: +14.6%

Draw 22.9%

Odds: 3.60 EV: -17.6%

Away 59.2%

Odds: 1.50 EV: -11.2%

Model lean: Away Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Home ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 50.0% Odds: 2.15 +7.5%

Over 3.5 28.0% Odds: 3.95 +10.6%

BTTS 48.6% Odds: 2.15 +4.5%

O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘ BTTS NO → NO ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 0-1 ✘

2nd 0-2 ✘

3rd 1-1 ✘

4th 1-2 ✘

5th 0-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Arda

0.87

Ludogorets

1.80

Model SuggestionAway -11.2% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Away, but EV is -11.2% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Home (+14.6%) — probability too low to qualify.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 6 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5/Under 33%

BTTS/No 33%

Score Hit 17%

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: GOOD (1.57) vs Away EXCELLENT (2.00)