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Saint Etienne vs Grenoble Prediction— France - Ligue 2

Matchday 3 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 18:00

Saint Etienne

PPG 2.02 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWW ·

4 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Grenoble

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDLW ·

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 59.6% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.2%0-14.4%0-21.8%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-011.1%1-19.2%1-23.8%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.8%2-19.8%2-24.1%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-08.3%3-16.9%3-22.9%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-07.2%4+-16.0%4+-22.5%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 62.4% 71.4% 1.40 -12.6%

Draw 21.9% 22.7% 4.40 -2.2%

Away win 15.7% 12.8% 7.80 +13.5%

Over 2.5 53.9% 59.9% 1.67 -10.0%

Over 3.5 33.4% 37.0% 2.70 -9.8%

BTTS 53.0% 54.6% 1.83 -3.0%

Home O1.5 59.6% 67.6% 1.48 -11.8%

Away O1.5 22.5% 22.2% 4.50 +0.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 45 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 38%

ROI 13.0%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob53.0%

H 62% / xG 2.1-0.8 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.8%

#2 1–1 9.2%

#3 2–1 9.8%

#4 1–0 11.1%

#5 3–0 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Saint Etienne2.1

Grenoble0.8

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 33.4%

Form & verdict PPG

SAINT ETIENNE · PPG 2.02

GRENOBLE · PPG 0.88

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.29 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Saint Etienne (H) 62.4%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -12.6%

Draw 21.9%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV -2.2%

Grenoble (A) 15.7%

ODDS 7.80 · IMPLIED 12.8% EV +13.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Saint Etienne face Grenoble in France - Ligue 2 on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Saint Etienne a 62% chance, the draw 22% and Grenoble 16%, so Saint Etienne are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Saint Etienne and 0.8 for Grenoble (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Saint Etienne are averaging 2.02 points per game versus 0.88 for Grenoble. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +22.8%. This match finished 4-0.

Saint Etienne vs Grenoble Prediction— France - Ligue 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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