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PAU vs Nancy Prediction— France - Ligue 2

Matchday 3 ·Friday, August 21, 2026, 18:00

PAU

PPG 1.08 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLD ·

0 – 1

FULL TIME

Nancy

PPG 1.21 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLWW ·

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.9%0-111.9%0-25.5%0-31.7%0-4+0.5%1 1-014.5%1-113.4%1-26.2%1-31.9%1-4+0.5%2 2-08.2%2-17.6%2-23.5%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-03.1%3-12.8%3-21.3%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.0%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.9% 45.5% 2.20 -14.4%

Draw 33.9% 30.3% 3.30 +11.9%

Away win 27.3% 32.3% 3.10 -9.2%

Over 2.5 38.0% 54.1% 1.85 -29.7%

Over 3.5 20.5% 32.3% 3.10 -21.9%

BTTS 47.6% 60.6% 1.65 -21.5%

Home O1.5 30.6% 47.6% 2.10 -35.7%

Away O1.5 24.4% 38.2% 2.62 -21.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 45 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 38%

ROI 13.0%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob47.6%

H 39% / xG 1.1-0.9 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.4%

#2 0–0 12.9%

#3 1–0 14.5%

#4 0–1✓ 11.9%

#5 2–0 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

PAU1.1

Nancy0.9

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 38.0% · O3.5 PROB 20.5%

Form & verdict PPG

PAU · PPG 1.08

NANCY · PPG 1.21

🎯 STRONG BET - Draw signal + Draw value aligned

80%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.21, combined xG 2.05 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

PAU (H) 38.9%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -14.4%

Draw 33.9%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV +11.9%

Nancy (A) 27.3%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -9.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

PAU face Nancy in France - Ligue 2 on Friday, August 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives PAU a 39% chance, the draw 34% and Nancy 27%, so PAU are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for PAU and 0.9 for Nancy (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, PAU are averaging 1.08 points per game versus 1.21 for Nancy. This match finished 0-1.

PAU vs Nancy Prediction— France - Ligue 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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