Today / France - Ligue 2 / Dunkerque vs Montpellier

Dunkerque vs Montpellier Prediction— France - Ligue 2

Matchday 3 ·Friday, August 21, 2026, 18:00

Dunkerque

PPG 1.64 · HOME

LAST 5

WDLL ·

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Montpellier

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWD ·

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.7% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.1%0-18.0%0-25.3%0-32.3%0-4+1.0%1 1-09.0%1-111.9%1-27.8%1-33.4%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.7%2-18.8%2-25.8%2-32.5%2-4+1.1%3 3-03.3%3-14.4%3-22.9%3-31.3%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-12.3%4+-21.5%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.8% 40.0% 2.50 +9.5%

Draw 24.1% 30.3% 3.30 -12.3%

Away win 32.1% 37.0% 2.70 -13.3%

Over 2.5 53.9% 54.1% 1.85 -0.3%

Over 3.5 31.6% 32.3% 3.10 -2.0%

BTTS 54.7% 61.7% 1.62 -11.4%

Home O1.5 40.0% 43.5% 2.30 -8.0%

Away O1.5 40.8% 41.7% 2.40 -2.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 45 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 38%

ROI 13.0%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob54.7%

H 44% / xG 1.5-1.3 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 2–1 8.8%

#3 1–0 9.0%

#4 1–2 7.8%

#5 2–0 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dunkerque1.5

Montpellier1.3

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

DUNKERQUE · PPG 1.64

MONTPELLIER · PPG 1.67

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.17 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Dunkerque (H) 43.8%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +9.5%

Draw 24.1%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -12.3%

Montpellier (A) 32.1%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -13.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dunkerque face Montpellier in France - Ligue 2 on Friday, August 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dunkerque a 44% chance, the draw 24% and Montpellier 32%, so Dunkerque are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Dunkerque and 1.3 for Montpellier (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dunkerque are averaging 1.64 points per game versus 1.67 for Montpellier. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +1.1%. This match finished 0-1.

Dunkerque vs Montpellier Prediction— France - Ligue 2

Match Preview & Prediction

More France - Ligue 2 Predictions