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Sfera U20 vs Gremio Prudente U20 Prediction— Brazil - Paulista - U20

Matchday 11 ·Friday, August 28, 2026, 18:00

Sfera U20

PPG 1.80 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWLD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

Gremio Prudente U20

PPG 1.60 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLDD

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 65.8% vs bookmaker-implied 54.3% — a clear edge.

+21.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.4%0-13.4%0-21.3%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-010.4%1-18.0%1-23.0%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.2%2-19.4%2-23.6%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-09.6%3-17.4%3-22.8%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-09.9%4+-17.5%4+-22.9%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 65.3% 54.1% 1.85 +20.8%

Draw 19.2% 29.4% 3.40 -20.8%

Away win 15.5% 28.6% 3.50 -27.5%

Over 2.5 60.8% 54.1% 1.85 +12.5%

Over 3.5 37.8% 36.5% 2.74 +3.6%

BTTS 52.7% 61.3% 1.63 -14.1%

Home O1.5 65.8% 54.3% 1.84 +21.1%

Away O1.5 22.0% 36.2% 2.76 -23.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 117 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -47.8%

Bet Hit 32%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 57%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.7%

H 65% / xG 2.4-0.8 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.2%

#2 1–1✓ 8.0%

#3 3–0 9.6%

#4 2–1 9.4%

#5 1–0 10.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sfera U202.4

Gremio Prudente U200.8

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.8% · O3.5 PROB 37.8%

Form & verdict PPG

SFERA U20 · PPG 1.80

GREMIO PRUDENTE U20 · PPG 1.60

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

95%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

xG gap +1.59 for Home, but form 1.80 vs 1.60 doesn't confirm

Win probability 1X2

Sfera U20 (H) 65.3%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV +20.8%

Draw 19.2%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -20.8%

Gremio Prudente U20 (A) 15.5%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -27.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sfera U20 face Gremio Prudente U20 in Brazil - Paulista - U20 on Friday, August 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sfera U20 a 65% chance, the draw 19% and Gremio Prudente U20 16%, so Sfera U20 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Sfera U20 and 0.8 for Gremio Prudente U20 (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sfera U20 are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 1.60 for Gremio Prudente U20. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +32.0%. This match finished 1-1.

Sfera U20 vs Gremio Prudente U20 Prediction— Brazil - Paulista - U20

Match Preview & Prediction

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