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Água Santa U20 vs Tanabi SP U20 Prediction— Brazil - Paulista - U20

Matchday 13 ·Friday, August 21, 2026, 18:00

Água Santa U20

PPG 1.40 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLWW

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

Tanabi SP U20

PPG 0.20 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLWL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 78.4% vs bookmaker-implied 68.5% — a clear edge.

+14.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.1%0-10.8%0-20.3%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-04.2%1-13.1%1-21.2%1-30.3%1-4+0.1%2 2-07.9%2-15.8%2-22.2%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-09.9%3-17.3%3-22.7%3-30.7%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-024.6%4+-118.2%4+-26.7%4+-31.6%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 76.6% 70.4% 1.42 +8.8%

Draw 15.7% 23.8% 4.20 -20.4%

Away win 7.7% 18.2% 5.50 -34.6%

Over 2.5 73.3% 66.7% 1.50 +10.0%

Over 3.5 54.2% 42.0% 2.38 +29.0%

BTTS 54.7% 59.2% 1.69 -7.6%

Home O1.5 78.4% 68.5% 1.46 +14.5%

Away O1.5 17.9% 27.3% 3.66 -20.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 117 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -47.8%

Bet Hit 32%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 70%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)3.7 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob54.7%

H 77% / xG 3.7-0.7 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 9.9%

#2 4–0 9.3%

#3 1–1 3.1%

#4 2–0 7.9%

#5 3–1 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Água Santa U203.7

Tanabi SP U200.7

COMBINED 4.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 73.3% · O3.5 PROB 54.2%

Form & verdict PPG

ÁGUA SANTA U20 · PPG 1.40

TANABI SP U20 · PPG 0.20

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +3.01 for Home, form 1.40 vs 0.20 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Água Santa U20 (H) 76.6%

ODDS 1.42 · IMPLIED 70.4% EV +8.8%

Draw 15.7%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -20.4%

Tanabi SP U20 (A) 7.7%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV -34.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Água Santa U20 face Tanabi SP U20 in Brazil - Paulista - U20 on Friday, August 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Água Santa U20 a 77% chance, the draw 16% and Tanabi SP U20 8%, so Água Santa U20 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.7 for Água Santa U20 and 0.7 for Tanabi SP U20 (4.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Água Santa U20 are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 0.20 for Tanabi SP U20. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +29.0%. This match finished 1-0.

Água Santa U20 vs Tanabi SP U20 Prediction— Brazil - Paulista - U20

Match Preview & Prediction

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