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EC São Bernardo U20 vs Velo Clube U20 Prediction— Brazil - Paulista - U20

Matchday 13 ·Friday, August 21, 2026, 18:00

EC São Bernardo U20

PPG 0.60 · HOME

LAST 5

LDWDD

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Velo Clube U20

PPG 0.40 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWDDD

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 52.2% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.7%0-17.3%0-22.1%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-018.9%1-110.9%1-23.1%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.0%2-18.1%2-22.3%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-07.0%3-14.0%3-21.2%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-03.6%4+-12.1%4+-20.6%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.2% 61.7% 1.62 -15.4%

Draw 26.0% 27.8% 3.60 -3.8%

Away win 21.8% 22.2% 4.50 -1.1%

Over 2.5 42.7% 54.1% 1.85 -21.0%

Over 3.5 20.6% 36.5% 2.74 -26.1%

BTTS 46.5% 60.2% 1.66 -22.8%

Home O1.5 40.0% 57.8% 1.73 -30.8%

Away O1.5 16.4% 31.7% 3.15 -29.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 117 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -47.8%

Bet Hit 32%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob46.5%

H 52% / xG 1.5-0.6 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 18.9%

#2 0–0✓ 12.7%

#3 2–0 14.0%

#4 1–1 10.9%

#5 0–1 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

EC São Bernardo U201.5

Velo Clube U200.6

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.7% · O3.5 PROB 20.6%

Form & verdict PPG

EC SÃO BERNARDO U20 · PPG 0.60

VELO CLUBE U20 · PPG 0.40

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.91 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

EC São Bernardo U20 (H) 52.2%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV -15.4%

Draw 26.0%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -3.8%

Velo Clube U20 (A) 21.8%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV -1.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

EC São Bernardo U20 face Velo Clube U20 in Brazil - Paulista - U20 on Friday, August 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives EC São Bernardo U20 a 52% chance, the draw 26% and Velo Clube U20 22%, so EC São Bernardo U20 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for EC São Bernardo U20 and 0.6 for Velo Clube U20 (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, EC São Bernardo U20 are averaging 0.60 points per game versus 0.40 for Velo Clube U20. This match finished 0-0.

EC São Bernardo U20 vs Velo Clube U20 Prediction— Brazil - Paulista - U20

Match Preview & Prediction

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