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Ibrachina U20 vs Desportivo Brasil U20 Prediction— Brazil - Paulista - U20

Matchday 13 ·Friday, August 21, 2026, 18:00

Ibrachina U20

PPG 2.40 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLLW

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Desportivo Brasil U20

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWDDL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 54.9% vs bookmaker-implied 61.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.5%0-15.4%0-21.9%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-014.0%1-110.1%1-23.6%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-013.1%2-19.4%2-23.4%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-08.2%3-15.9%3-22.1%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-05.9%4+-14.2%4+-21.5%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.3% 63.7% 1.57 -16.3%

Draw 22.6% 26.3% 3.80 -8.5%

Away win 24.1% 22.2% 4.50 +5.1%

Over 2.5 53.4% 57.8% 1.73 -7.6%

Over 3.5 30.9% 38.6% 2.59 -20.0%

BTTS 49.1% 60.2% 1.66 -18.5%

Home O1.5 54.9% 61.0% 1.64 -10.0%

Away O1.5 17.9% 31.4% 3.18 -25.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 117 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -47.8%

Bet Hit 32%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 32%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob49.1%

H 53% / xG 1.9-0.7 / O2.5 53% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 13.1%

#2 1–1 10.1%

#3 1–0 14.0%

#4 0–0 7.5%

#5 2–1 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ibrachina U201.9

Desportivo Brasil U200.7

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.4% · O3.5 PROB 30.9%

Form & verdict PPG

IBRACHINA U20 · PPG 2.40

DESPORTIVO BRASIL U20 · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.15 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Ibrachina U20 (H) 53.3%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV -16.3%

Draw 22.6%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -8.5%

Desportivo Brasil U20 (A) 24.1%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV +5.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ibrachina U20 face Desportivo Brasil U20 in Brazil - Paulista - U20 on Friday, August 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ibrachina U20 a 53% chance, the draw 23% and Desportivo Brasil U20 24%, so Ibrachina U20 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Ibrachina U20 and 0.7 for Desportivo Brasil U20 (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ibrachina U20 are averaging 2.40 points per game versus 1.00 for Desportivo Brasil U20. This match finished 3-0.

Ibrachina U20 vs Desportivo Brasil U20 Prediction— Brazil - Paulista - U20

Match Preview & Prediction

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