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Guarani U20 vs Ituano U20 Prediction— Brazil - Paulista - U20

Matchday 13 ·Friday, August 21, 2026, 18:00

Guarani U20

PPG 2.52 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLDW

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Ituano U20

PPG 1.31 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLWL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.5%0-14.4%0-21.7%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-011.7%1-19.2%1-23.6%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.3%2-19.7%2-23.8%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-08.6%3-16.8%3-22.7%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-07.4%4+-15.8%4+-22.3%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.0% 69.0% 1.45 -14.4%

Draw 22.1% 25.0% 4.00 -7.0%

Away win 18.9% 18.2% 5.50 +2.4%

Over 2.5 59.7% 59.9% 1.67 -0.3%

Over 3.5 36.1% 39.7% 2.52 -9.0%

BTTS 53.0% 60.2% 1.66 -12.0%

Home O1.5 59.6% 62.5% 1.60 -4.6%

Away O1.5 20.9% 31.1% 3.22 -19.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 117 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -47.8%

Bet Hit 32%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob53.0%

H 59% / xG 2.1-0.8 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.3%

#2 1–1 9.2%

#3 1–0 11.7%

#4 2–1✓ 9.7%

#5 3–0 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Guarani U202.1

Ituano U200.8

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.1%

Form & verdict PPG

GUARANI U20 · PPG 2.52

ITUANO U20 · PPG 1.31

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.32 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Guarani U20 (H) 59.0%

ODDS 1.45 · IMPLIED 69.0% EV -14.4%

Draw 22.1%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -7.0%

Ituano U20 (A) 18.9%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV +2.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Guarani U20 face Ituano U20 in Brazil - Paulista - U20 on Friday, August 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Guarani U20 a 59% chance, the draw 22% and Ituano U20 19%, so Guarani U20 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Guarani U20 and 0.8 for Ituano U20 (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Guarani U20 are averaging 2.52 points per game versus 1.31 for Ituano U20. This match finished 2-1.

Guarani U20 vs Ituano U20 Prediction— Brazil - Paulista - U20

Match Preview & Prediction

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