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Flamengo SP U20 vs Capivariano U20 Prediction— Brazil - Paulista - U20

Matchday 13 ·Friday, August 21, 2026, 18:00

Flamengo SP U20

PPG 1.33 · HOME

LAST 5

WLDLW

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Capivariano U20

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLDL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.8%0-115.1%0-28.9%0-33.5%0-4+1.3%1 1-011.2%1-113.2%1-27.8%1-33.1%1-4+1.2%2 2-04.9%2-15.8%2-23.4%2-31.3%2-4+0.5%3 3-01.4%3-11.7%3-21.0%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.4%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.4% 29.4% 3.40 -2.1%

Draw 28.4% 29.4% 3.40 -2.1%

Away win 43.2% 52.6% 1.90 -17.9%

Over 2.5 42.7% 48.8% 2.05 -12.5%

Over 3.5 20.6% 31.8% 3.14 -21.2%

BTTS 47.6% 59.2% 1.69 -19.6%

Home O1.5 30.6% 37.3% 2.68 -18.0%

Away O1.5 35.6% 47.4% 2.11 -24.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 117 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -47.8%

Bet Hit 32%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob47.6%

A 43% / xG 0.9-1.2 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 15.1%

#2 1–1 13.2%

#3 0–0 12.8%

#4 1–0✓ 11.2%

#5 0–2 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Flamengo SP U200.9

Capivariano U201.2

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.7% · O3.5 PROB 20.6%

Form & verdict PPG

FLAMENGO SP U20 · PPG 1.33

CAPIVARIANO U20 · PPG 1.20

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.30, combined xG 2.06 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Flamengo SP U20 (H) 28.4%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -2.1%

Draw 28.4%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -2.1%

Capivariano U20 (A) 43.2%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -17.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Flamengo SP U20 face Capivariano U20 in Brazil - Paulista - U20 on Friday, August 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Flamengo SP U20 a 28% chance, the draw 28% and Capivariano U20 43%, so Capivariano U20 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Flamengo SP U20 and 1.2 for Capivariano U20 (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Flamengo SP U20 are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.20 for Capivariano U20. This match finished 1-0.

Flamengo SP U20 vs Capivariano U20 Prediction— Brazil - Paulista - U20

Match Preview & Prediction

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