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Corinthians U20 vs Juventus U20 Prediction— Brazil - Paulista - U20

Matchday 13 ·Friday, August 21, 2026, 18:00

Corinthians U20

PPG 2.54 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWWL

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

Juventus U20

PPG 1.56 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLWW

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 65.1% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+7.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.6%0-13.1%0-21.4%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-08.7%1-17.7%1-23.4%1-31.0%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.7%2-19.4%2-24.2%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-08.8%3-17.7%3-23.4%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-09.7%4+-18.5%4+-23.7%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 65.0% 67.6% 1.48 -3.8%

Draw 19.5% 25.0% 4.00 -13.2%

Away win 15.5% 19.0% 5.25 -11.2%

Over 2.5 63.1% 59.9% 1.67 +5.4%

Over 3.5 39.4% 35.3% 2.83 +11.5%

BTTS 54.7% 55.6% 1.80 -1.5%

Home O1.5 65.1% 60.6% 1.65 +7.4%

Away O1.5 22.8% 25.6% 3.90 -6.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 117 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -47.8%

Bet Hit 32%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 54%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob54.7%

H 65% / xG 2.5-0.9 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 10.7%

#2 1–1 7.7%

#3 2–1 9.4%

#4 3–0 8.8%

#5 3–1 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Corinthians U202.5

Juventus U200.9

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.1% · O3.5 PROB 39.4%

Form & verdict PPG

CORINTHIANS U20 · PPG 2.54

JUVENTUS U20 · PPG 1.56

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.58 for Home, form 2.54 vs 1.56 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Corinthians U20 (H) 65.0%

ODDS 1.48 · IMPLIED 67.6% EV -3.8%

Draw 19.5%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -13.2%

Juventus U20 (A) 15.5%

ODDS 5.25 · IMPLIED 19.0% EV -11.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Corinthians U20 face Juventus U20 in Brazil - Paulista - U20 on Friday, August 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Corinthians U20 a 65% chance, the draw 20% and Juventus U20 16%, so Corinthians U20 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Corinthians U20 and 0.9 for Juventus U20 (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Corinthians U20 are averaging 2.54 points per game versus 1.56 for Juventus U20. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +12.1%. This match finished 1-2.

Corinthians U20 vs Juventus U20 Prediction— Brazil - Paulista - U20

Match Preview & Prediction

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