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Novorizontino U20 vs Oeste U20 Prediction— Brazil - Paulista - U20

Matchday 13 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 18:00

Novorizontino U20

PPG 1.40 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWLW

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Oeste U20

PPG 1.60 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDDDL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.0% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.4%0-17.9%0-23.8%0-31.2%0-4+0.3%1 1-012.9%1-112.2%1-25.8%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.8%2-19.3%2-24.4%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-05.0%3-14.8%3-22.2%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-12.6%4+-21.2%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.8% 59.9% 1.67 -15.2%

Draw 24.7% 27.8% 3.60 -6.7%

Away win 24.5% 25.0% 4.00 -1.2%

Over 2.5 52.2% 57.8% 1.73 -9.7%

Over 3.5 30.9% 36.0% 2.78 -14.1%

BTTS 53.0% 60.6% 1.65 -12.6%

Home O1.5 41.2% 56.8% 1.76 -27.5%

Away O1.5 25.7% 32.9% 3.04 -13.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 117 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -47.8%

Bet Hit 32%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 29%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob53.0%

H 51% / xG 1.5-0.9 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 1–0 12.9%

#3 2–0 9.8%

#4 2–1✓ 9.3%

#5 0–0 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Novorizontino U201.5

Oeste U200.9

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.2% · O3.5 PROB 30.9%

Form & verdict PPG

NOVORIZONTINO U20 · PPG 1.40

OESTE U20 · PPG 1.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.58 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Novorizontino U20 (H) 50.8%

ODDS 1.67 · IMPLIED 59.9% EV -15.2%

Draw 24.7%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -6.7%

Oeste U20 (A) 24.5%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -1.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Novorizontino U20 face Oeste U20 in Brazil - Paulista - U20 on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Novorizontino U20 a 51% chance, the draw 25% and Oeste U20 25%, so Novorizontino U20 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Novorizontino U20 and 0.9 for Oeste U20 (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Novorizontino U20 are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 1.60 for Oeste U20. This match finished 2-1.

Novorizontino U20 vs Oeste U20 Prediction— Brazil - Paulista - U20

Match Preview & Prediction

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