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Linero vs Sölvesborg Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland

Södra Götaland · Matchday 19 ·Friday, August 28, 2026, 17:30

Linero

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWLW

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Sölvesborg

PPG 1.12 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWWL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.2% vs bookmaker-implied 72.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.4%0-13.3%0-22.3%0-31.0%0-4+0.5%1 1-05.7%1-17.8%1-25.3%1-32.4%1-4+1.1%2 2-06.7%2-19.2%2-26.3%2-32.9%2-4+1.3%3 3-05.2%3-17.2%3-24.9%3-32.2%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-05.4%4+-17.3%4+-25.0%4+-32.3%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.3% 51.3% 1.95 +0.0%

Draw 20.1% 25.6% 3.90 -13.0%

Away win 28.5% 33.3% 3.00 -8.7%

Over 2.5 68.2% 72.5% 1.38 -5.9%

Over 3.5 48.0% 51.3% 1.95 -6.4%

BTTS 63.1% 74.1% 1.35 -14.8%

Home O1.5 65.8% 63.7% 1.57 +3.3%

Away O1.5 40.9% 51.3% 1.95 -20.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 32%

ROI 3.1%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 62%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob63.1%

H 51% / xG 2.4-1.4 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.8%

#2 2–1 9.2%

#3 1–2 5.3%

#4 3–1 7.2%

#5 2–0 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Linero2.4

Sölvesborg1.4

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.2% · O3.5 PROB 48.0%

Form & verdict PPG

LINERO · PPG 2.00

SÖLVESBORG · PPG 1.12

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.98 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Linero (H) 51.3%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV +0.0%

Draw 20.1%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -13.0%

Sölvesborg (A) 28.5%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -8.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Linero face Sölvesborg in Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland on Friday, August 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Linero a 51% chance, the draw 20% and Sölvesborg 28%, so Linero are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Linero and 1.4 for Sölvesborg (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Linero are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.12 for Sölvesborg. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +7.8%. This match finished 1-0.

Linero vs Sölvesborg Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland

Match Preview & Prediction

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