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Oskarshamns AIK vs Linero Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland

Södra Götaland · Matchday 18 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 12:00

Oskarshamns AIK

PPG 2.38 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWWW

7 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Linero

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWLW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.3% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.5%0-12.8%0-21.6%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-06.5%1-17.2%1-24.0%1-31.5%1-4+0.5%2 2-08.3%2-19.3%2-25.2%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-07.1%3-17.9%3-24.4%3-31.6%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-08.4%4+-19.3%4+-25.2%4+-32.0%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 62.4% 56.2% 1.78 +11.1%

Draw 17.2% 28.2% 3.55 -23.4%

Away win 20.4% 29.4% 3.40 -18.4%

Over 2.5 67.3% 69.0% 1.45 -2.4%

Over 3.5 43.5% 47.2% 2.12 -7.8%

BTTS 61.3% — — —

Home O1.5 65.1% — — —

Away O1.5 35.6% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 32%

ROI 3.1%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 67%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 7-1

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob61.3%

H 62% / xG 2.6-1.1 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.3%

#2 2–0 8.3%

#3 1–1 7.2%

#4 3–1 7.9%

#5 3–0 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Oskarshamns AIK2.6

Linero1.1

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.3% · O3.5 PROB 43.5%

Form & verdict PPG

OSKARSHAMNS AIK · PPG 2.38

LINERO · PPG 1.25

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.44 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Oskarshamns AIK (H) 62.4%

ODDS 1.78 · IMPLIED 56.2% EV +11.1%

Draw 17.2%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -23.4%

Linero (A) 20.4%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -18.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Oskarshamns AIK face Linero in Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Oskarshamns AIK a 62% chance, the draw 17% and Linero 20%, so Oskarshamns AIK are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Oskarshamns AIK and 1.1 for Linero (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Oskarshamns AIK are averaging 2.38 points per game versus 1.25 for Linero. This match finished 7-1.

Oskarshamns AIK vs Linero Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland

Match Preview & Prediction

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