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Karlskrona vs Växjö Norra Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland

Södra Götaland · Matchday 18 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 12:00

Karlskrona

PPG 2.25 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWWW

5 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Växjö Norra

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLLW

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 67.4% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a clear edge.

+24.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.3%0-13.5%0-21.4%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-010.1%1-18.2%1-23.3%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.7%2-19.5%2-23.9%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-09.1%3-17.4%3-23.0%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-09.1%4+-17.4%4+-23.0%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 67.4% 54.1% 1.85 +24.7%

Draw 17.7% 27.8% 3.60 -21.8%

Away win 14.9% 28.6% 3.50 -28.7%

Over 2.5 63.1% 63.7% 1.57 -0.9%

Over 3.5 39.4% 42.0% 2.38 -6.2%

BTTS 53.1% 67.6% 1.48 -21.4%

Home O1.5 65.1% 59.9% 1.67 +8.7%

Away O1.5 22.5% 41.7% 2.40 -27.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 32%

ROI 3.1%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-0

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob53.1%

H 67% / xG 2.3-0.8 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.7%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 3–0 9.1%

#4 1–0 10.1%

#5 1–1 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Karlskrona2.3

Växjö Norra0.8

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.1% · O3.5 PROB 39.4%

Form & verdict PPG

KARLSKRONA · PPG 2.25

VÄXJÖ NORRA · PPG 1.33

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.51 for Home, form 2.25 vs 1.33 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Karlskrona (H) 67.4%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV +24.7%

Draw 17.7%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -21.8%

Växjö Norra (A) 14.9%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -28.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Karlskrona face Växjö Norra in Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Karlskrona a 67% chance, the draw 18% and Växjö Norra 15%, so Karlskrona are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Karlskrona and 0.8 for Växjö Norra (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Karlskrona are averaging 2.25 points per game versus 1.33 for Växjö Norra. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +8.7%. This match finished 5-0.

Karlskrona vs Växjö Norra Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland

Match Preview & Prediction

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