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Karlshamn vs Nosaby Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland

Södra Götaland · Matchday 19 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 12:00

Karlshamn

PPG 0.44 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLLW

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Nosaby

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLWL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.2% vs bookmaker-implied 68.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.9%0-16.1%0-26.3%0-34.4%0-4+3.7%1 1-04.2%1-18.8%1-29.2%1-36.4%1-4+5.4%2 2-03.1%2-16.4%2-26.7%2-34.6%2-4+3.9%3 3-01.5%3-13.1%3-23.2%3-32.2%3-4+1.9%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-11.5%4+-21.6%4+-31.1%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 24.9% 34.5% 2.90 -16.7%

Draw 20.8% 29.0% 3.45 -16.9%

Away win 54.3% 50.0% 2.00 +8.6%

Over 2.5 68.2% 68.5% 1.46 -0.4%

Over 3.5 45.0% 46.5% 2.15 -3.3%

BTTS 63.1% — — —

Home O1.5 40.1% — — —

Away O1.5 58.7% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 32%

ROI 3.1%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 60%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob63.1%

A 54% / xG 1.5-2.1 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 9.2%

#2 1–1 8.8%

#3 1–3 6.4%

#4 0–2 6.3%

#5 2–1 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Karlshamn1.5

Nosaby2.1

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.2% · O3.5 PROB 45.0%

Form & verdict PPG

KARLSHAMN · PPG 0.44

NOSABY · PPG 1.25

⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.64 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Karlshamn (H) 24.9%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -16.7%

Draw 20.8%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -16.9%

Nosaby (A) 54.3%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV +8.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Karlshamn face Nosaby in Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Karlshamn a 25% chance, the draw 21% and Nosaby 54%, so Nosaby are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Karlshamn and 2.1 for Nosaby (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Karlshamn are averaging 0.44 points per game versus 1.25 for Nosaby. This match finished 3-1.

Karlshamn vs Nosaby Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland

Match Preview & Prediction

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