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Nosaby vs Torns Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland

Södra Götaland · Matchday 18 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 12:00

Nosaby

PPG 1.78 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLWL

5 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Torns

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLLL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

xG gap +2.03 for Home, form 1.78 vs 1.00 - Strong consensus

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.0%0-11.3%0-20.8%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-03.4%1-14.3%1-22.8%1-31.2%1-4+0.5%2 2-05.6%2-17.1%2-24.6%2-31.9%2-4+0.8%3 3-06.2%3-17.9%3-25.0%3-32.1%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-011.7%4+-115.0%4+-29.5%4+-34.1%4+-4+1.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 68.0% 53.2% 1.88 +27.8%

Draw 16.2% 28.2% 3.55 -25.5%

Away win 15.9% 32.3% 3.10 -30.4%

Over 2.5 72.1% 70.4% 1.42 +2.4%

Over 3.5 51.6% 48.5% 2.06 +6.3%

BTTS 63.2% — — —

Home O1.5 78.4% — — —

Away O1.5 37.3% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 32%

ROI 3.1%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 74%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-0

xG (home)3.3 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob63.2%

H 68% / xG 3.3-1.3 / O2.5 72% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 7.9%

#2 2–1 7.1%

#3 4–1 6.5%

#4 1–1 4.3%

#5 3–0 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nosaby3.3

Torns1.3

COMBINED 4.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.1% · O3.5 PROB 51.6%

Form & verdict PPG

NOSABY · PPG 1.78

TORNS · PPG 1.00

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.03 for Home, form 1.78 vs 1.00 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Nosaby (H) 68.0%

ODDS 1.88 · IMPLIED 53.2% EV +27.8%

Draw 16.2%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -25.5%

Torns (A) 15.9%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -30.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Nosaby face Torns in Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nosaby a 68% chance, the draw 16% and Torns 16%, so Nosaby are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.3 for Nosaby and 1.3 for Torns (4.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nosaby are averaging 1.78 points per game versus 1.00 for Torns. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +6.3%. This match finished 5-0.

Nosaby vs Torns Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland

Match Preview & Prediction

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