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Staffanstorp United vs Oskarshamns AIK Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland

Södra Götaland · Matchday 19 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 14:00

Staffanstorp United

PPG 1.25 · HOME

LAST 5

LDLDL

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Oskarshamns AIK

PPG 1.56 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 65.1% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.9%0-15.8%0-25.8%0-33.9%0-4+3.1%1 1-04.5%1-18.9%1-29.0%1-36.0%1-4+4.7%2 2-03.4%2-16.9%2-26.9%2-34.6%2-4+3.6%3 3-01.8%3-13.5%3-23.5%3-32.3%3-4+1.9%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.9%4+-21.9%4+-31.3%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.2% 29.9% 3.35 -3.3%

Draw 21.4% 28.6% 3.50 -15.1%

Away win 50.4% 54.9% 1.82 -8.3%

Over 2.5 65.1% 64.5% 1.55 +0.9%

Over 3.5 44.2% 42.6% 2.35 +3.9%

BTTS 61.4% — — —

Home O1.5 42.2% — — —

Away O1.5 56.9% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 32%

ROI 3.1%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob61.4%

A 50% / xG 1.5-2.0 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2✓ 9.0%

#2 1–1 8.9%

#3 2–1 6.9%

#4 1–3 6.0%

#5 0–2 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Staffanstorp United1.5

Oskarshamns AIK2.0

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.1% · O3.5 PROB 44.2%

Form & verdict PPG

STAFFANSTORP UNITED · PPG 1.25

OSKARSHAMNS AIK · PPG 1.56

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.47 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Staffanstorp United (H) 28.2%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -3.3%

Draw 21.4%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -15.1%

Oskarshamns AIK (A) 50.4%

ODDS 1.82 · IMPLIED 54.9% EV -8.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Staffanstorp United face Oskarshamns AIK in Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Staffanstorp United a 28% chance, the draw 21% and Oskarshamns AIK 50%, so Oskarshamns AIK are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Staffanstorp United and 2.0 for Oskarshamns AIK (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Staffanstorp United are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 1.56 for Oskarshamns AIK. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +3.9%. This match finished 1-2.

Staffanstorp United vs Oskarshamns AIK Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland

Match Preview & Prediction

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