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IFK Trelleborg vs Lilla Torg Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland

Södra Götaland · Matchday 18 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 13:00

IFK Trelleborg

PPG 2.25 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWWW

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Lilla Torg

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDLLW

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 73.7% vs bookmaker-implied 69.9% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.1%0-12.8%0-21.0%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-010.3%1-17.1%1-22.4%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-012.9%2-18.9%2-23.0%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-010.8%3-17.4%3-22.5%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-012.3%4+-18.4%4+-22.9%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 73.7% 69.9% 1.43 +5.4%

Draw 17.5% 24.4% 4.10 -17.0%

Away win 8.8% 19.2% 5.20 -32.5%

Over 2.5 63.1% 70.9% 1.41 -11.0%

Over 3.5 39.4% 49.5% 2.02 -20.4%

BTTS 52.9% — — —

Home O1.5 65.1% — — —

Away O1.5 17.9% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 32%

ROI 3.1%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 57%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob52.9%

H 74% / xG 2.5-0.7 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0✓ 12.9%

#2 3–0 10.8%

#3 1–0 10.3%

#4 2–1 8.9%

#5 1–1 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

IFK Trelleborg2.5

Lilla Torg0.7

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.1% · O3.5 PROB 39.4%

Form & verdict PPG

IFK TRELLEBORG · PPG 2.25

LILLA TORG · PPG 0.88

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.82 for Home, form 2.25 vs 0.88 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

IFK Trelleborg (H) 73.7%

ODDS 1.43 · IMPLIED 69.9% EV +5.4%

Draw 17.5%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -17.0%

Lilla Torg (A) 8.8%

ODDS 5.20 · IMPLIED 19.2% EV -32.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

IFK Trelleborg face Lilla Torg in Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives IFK Trelleborg a 74% chance, the draw 18% and Lilla Torg 9%, so IFK Trelleborg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for IFK Trelleborg and 0.7 for Lilla Torg (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, IFK Trelleborg are averaging 2.25 points per game versus 0.88 for Lilla Torg. This match finished 2-0.

IFK Trelleborg vs Lilla Torg Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland

Match Preview & Prediction

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