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Lilla Torg vs Räppe Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland

Södra Götaland · Matchday 19 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 11:00

Lilla Torg

PPG 1.33 · HOME

LAST 5

LDLLW

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Räppe

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLDL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.6%0-16.5%0-23.2%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-011.3%1-111.3%1-25.6%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.8%2-19.8%2-24.9%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-05.7%3-15.6%3-22.8%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-03.6%4+-13.6%4+-21.8%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.4% 48.8% 2.05 +7.4%

Draw 24.0% 28.2% 3.55 -8.9%

Away win 23.7% 33.3% 3.00 -17.3%

Over 2.5 53.5% 61.7% 1.62 -13.3%

Over 3.5 32.6% 40.0% 2.50 -18.5%

BTTS 54.6% 66.7% 1.50 -18.1%

Home O1.5 48.9% 55.6% 1.80 -12.0%

Away O1.5 30.3% 43.5% 2.30 -30.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 32%

ROI 3.1%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob54.6%

H 52% / xG 1.7-1.0 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.3%

#2 2–0 9.8%

#3 2–1 9.8%

#4 1–0 11.3%

#5 0–0 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lilla Torg1.7

Räppe1.0

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 32.6%

Form & verdict PPG

LILLA TORG · PPG 1.33

RÄPPE · PPG 0.75

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.73 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Lilla Torg (H) 52.4%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV +7.4%

Draw 24.0%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -8.9%

Räppe (A) 23.7%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -17.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lilla Torg face Räppe in Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lilla Torg a 52% chance, the draw 24% and Räppe 24%, so Lilla Torg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Lilla Torg and 1.0 for Räppe (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lilla Torg are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 0.75 for Räppe. This match finished 3-1.

Lilla Torg vs Räppe Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland

Match Preview & Prediction

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