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Räppe vs Österlen Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland

Södra Götaland · Matchday 18 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 12:00

Räppe

PPG 0.78 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLDL

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Österlen

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLDL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.7% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.8%0-111.5%0-28.4%0-34.1%0-4+2.1%1 1-08.5%1-112.4%1-29.1%1-34.4%1-4+2.2%2 2-04.6%2-16.7%2-24.9%2-32.4%2-4+1.2%3 3-01.7%3-12.4%3-21.8%3-30.9%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.8%4+-20.6%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.9% 34.7% 2.88 -10.1%

Draw 25.3% 28.2% 3.55 -6.1%

Away win 45.8% 47.6% 2.10 -3.8%

Over 2.5 53.9% 63.7% 1.57 -15.4%

Over 3.5 31.6% 41.7% 2.40 -24.2%

BTTS 54.7% 69.0% 1.45 -20.7%

Home O1.5 30.6% 46.5% 2.15 -34.2%

Away O1.5 41.2% 55.6% 1.80 -25.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 32%

ROI 3.1%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob54.7%

A 46% / xG 1.1-1.5 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 12.4%

#2 0–1 11.5%

#3 1–2 9.1%

#4 0–2 8.4%

#5 0–0 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Räppe1.1

Österlen1.5

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

RÄPPE · PPG 0.78

ÖSTERLEN · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.38 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Räppe (H) 28.9%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -10.1%

Draw 25.3%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -6.1%

Österlen (A) 45.8%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -3.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Räppe face Österlen in Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Räppe a 29% chance, the draw 25% and Österlen 46%, so Österlen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Räppe and 1.5 for Österlen (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Räppe are averaging 0.78 points per game versus 1.50 for Österlen. This match finished 1-1.

Räppe vs Österlen Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland

Match Preview & Prediction

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