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Torns vs IFK Trelleborg Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland

Södra Götaland · Matchday 19 ·Friday, August 28, 2026, 17:00

Torns

PPG 1.12 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLLL

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

IFK Trelleborg

PPG 1.56 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWWW

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 64.0% vs bookmaker-implied 61.0% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.0%0-18.6%0-29.3%0-36.8%0-4+6.1%1 1-04.2%1-19.1%1-29.9%1-37.2%1-4+6.4%2 2-02.2%2-14.8%2-25.2%2-33.8%2-4+3.4%3 3-00.8%3-11.7%3-21.8%3-31.3%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.6%4+-20.6%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 16.3% 26.0% 3.85 -22.4%

Draw 19.6% 26.3% 3.80 -15.3%

Away win 64.0% 61.0% 1.64 +5.0%

Over 2.5 64.1% 70.9% 1.41 -9.6%

Over 3.5 43.2% 48.8% 2.05 -11.4%

BTTS 55.0% — — —

Home O1.5 30.9% — — —

Away O1.5 59.3% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 32%

ROI 3.1%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)2.2 BTTS prob55.0%

A 64% / xG 1.1-2.2 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2✓ 9.9%

#2 0–2 9.3%

#3 1–1 9.1%

#4 0–1 8.6%

#5 1–3 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Torns1.1

IFK Trelleborg2.2

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.1% · O3.5 PROB 43.2%

Form & verdict PPG

TORNS · PPG 1.12

IFK TRELLEBORG · PPG 1.56

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

65%

DANGER

xG gap -1.12 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Torns (H) 16.3%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -22.4%

Draw 19.6%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -15.3%

IFK Trelleborg (A) 64.0%

ODDS 1.64 · IMPLIED 61.0% EV +5.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Torns face IFK Trelleborg in Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland on Friday, August 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Torns a 16% chance, the draw 20% and IFK Trelleborg 64%, so IFK Trelleborg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Torns and 2.2 for IFK Trelleborg (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Torns are averaging 1.12 points per game versus 1.56 for IFK Trelleborg. This match finished 1-2.

Torns vs IFK Trelleborg Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland

Match Preview & Prediction

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