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Boreham Wood vs Boston United Prediction— England - National League

Matchday 4 ·Thursday, August 27, 2026, 18:45

Boreham Wood

PPG 1.84 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWWW

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Boston United

PPG 1.69 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWLL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 59.2% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.1%0-15.9%0-23.4%0-31.3%0-4+0.5%1 1-09.3%1-110.7%1-26.2%1-32.4%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.4%2-19.8%2-25.6%2-32.2%2-4+0.8%3 3-05.1%3-15.9%3-23.4%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-03.5%4+-14.1%4+-22.4%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.9% 64.5% 1.55 -19.6%

Draw 23.5% 25.3% 3.95 -4.3%

Away win 24.6% 20.0% 5.00 +13.8%

Over 2.5 59.7% 64.5% 1.55 -7.5%

Over 3.5 36.7% 42.0% 2.38 -12.7%

BTTS 59.2% 63.7% 1.57 -7.1%

Home O1.5 51.4% 66.7% 1.50 -22.9%

Away O1.5 33.0% 33.3% 3.00 -1.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 53%

ROI 35.2%

Bet Hit 83%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob59.2%

H 52% / xG 1.8-1.2 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.7%

#2 2–1✓ 9.8%

#3 2–0 8.4%

#4 1–0 9.3%

#5 1–2 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Boreham Wood1.8

Boston United1.2

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.7%

Form & verdict PPG

BOREHAM WOOD · PPG 1.84

BOSTON UNITED · PPG 1.69

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.66 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Boreham Wood (H) 51.9%

ODDS 1.55 · IMPLIED 64.5% EV -19.6%

Draw 23.5%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -4.3%

Boston United (A) 24.6%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +13.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Boreham Wood face Boston United in England - National League on Thursday, August 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Boreham Wood a 52% chance, the draw 24% and Boston United 25%, so Boreham Wood are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Boreham Wood and 1.2 for Boston United (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Boreham Wood are averaging 1.84 points per game versus 1.69 for Boston United. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +36.0%. This match finished 2-1.

Boreham Wood vs Boston United Prediction— England - National League

Match Preview & Prediction

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