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Stromsgodset vs hodd Prediction— Norway - 1st Division

Matchday 19 ·Wednesday, August 26, 2026, 17:00

Stromsgodset

PPG 2.22 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWWW

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

hodd

PPG 1.22 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWLW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.2% vs bookmaker-implied 80.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.3%0-12.6%0-21.5%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-06.1%1-16.9%1-23.9%1-31.5%1-4+0.5%2 2-08.0%2-19.1%2-25.1%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-07.0%3-18.0%3-24.5%3-31.7%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-08.8%4+-19.9%4+-25.6%4+-32.1%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.8% 80.0% 1.25 -27.8%

Draw 19.9% 17.9% 5.60 +6.9%

Away win 22.3% 12.8% 7.80 +44.4%

Over 2.5 68.2% 80.0% 1.25 -14.8%

Over 3.5 48.0% 58.8% 1.70 -18.4%

BTTS 63.1% 66.7% 1.50 -5.3%

Home O1.5 65.8% 84.7% 1.18 -22.4%

Away O1.5 33.0% 32.3% 3.10 +2.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 97 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 26%

ROI 21.6%

Bet Hit 79%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 67%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob63.1%

H 58% / xG 2.6-1.1 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 6.9%

#2 2–1 9.1%

#3 2–0 8.0%

#4 3–1✓ 8.0%

#5 1–2 3.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Stromsgodset2.6

hodd1.1

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.2% · O3.5 PROB 48.0%

Form & verdict PPG

STROMSGODSET · PPG 2.22

HODD · PPG 1.22

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.51 for Home, form 2.22 vs 1.22 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Stromsgodset (H) 57.8%

ODDS 1.25 · IMPLIED 80.0% EV -27.8%

Draw 19.9%

ODDS 5.60 · IMPLIED 17.9% EV +6.9%

hodd (A) 22.3%

ODDS 7.80 · IMPLIED 12.8% EV +44.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Stromsgodset face hodd in Norway - 1st Division on Wednesday, August 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Stromsgodset a 58% chance, the draw 20% and hodd 22%, so Stromsgodset are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Stromsgodset and 1.1 for hodd (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Stromsgodset are averaging 2.22 points per game versus 1.22 for hodd. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +32.2%. This match finished 3-1.

Stromsgodset vs hodd Prediction— Norway - 1st Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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