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Stabaek vs Ranheim Prediction— Norway - 1st Division

Matchday 19 ·Wednesday, August 26, 2026, 17:00

Stabaek

PPG 2.62 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWWL

4 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Ranheim

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLLL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 5.1 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 80.4% vs bookmaker-implied 82.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.6%0-10.8%0-20.5%0-30.2%0-4+0.1%1 1-02.5%1-12.9%1-21.7%1-30.7%1-4+0.3%2 2-04.8%2-15.7%2-23.4%2-31.3%2-4+0.5%3 3-06.1%3-17.3%3-24.3%3-31.7%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-016.5%4+-119.6%4+-211.6%4+-34.6%4+-4+1.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 71.3% 71.4% 1.40 -0.2%

Draw 14.7% 20.0% 5.00 -15.9%

Away win 13.9% 19.0% 5.25 -16.2%

Over 2.5 80.4% 82.0% 1.22 -1.9%

Over 3.5 57.5% 61.7% 1.62 -6.9%

BTTS 63.1% 75.2% 1.33 -16.1%

Home O1.5 78.3% 82.0% 1.22 -4.5%

Away O1.5 34.2% 43.5% 2.30 -21.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 97 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 26%

ROI 21.6%

Bet Hit 79%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 81%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-2

xG (home)3.9 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob63.1%

H 71% / xG 3.9-1.2 / O2.5 80% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 7.3%

#2 4–1 7.1%

#3 3–0 6.1%

#4 4–0 5.9%

#5 1–1 2.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Stabaek3.9

Ranheim1.2

COMBINED 5.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 80.4% · O3.5 PROB 57.5%

Form & verdict PPG

STABAEK · PPG 2.62

RANHEIM · PPG 0.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.68 for Home, form 2.62 vs 0.75 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Stabaek (H) 71.3%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -0.2%

Draw 14.7%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV -15.9%

Ranheim (A) 13.9%

ODDS 5.25 · IMPLIED 19.0% EV -16.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Stabaek face Ranheim in Norway - 1st Division on Wednesday, August 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Stabaek a 71% chance, the draw 15% and Ranheim 14%, so Stabaek are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.9 for Stabaek and 1.2 for Ranheim (5.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 80% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Stabaek are averaging 2.62 points per game versus 0.75 for Ranheim. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +0.7%. This match finished 4-2.

Stabaek vs Ranheim Prediction— Norway - 1st Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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