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ODD Ballklubb vs Kongsvinger Prediction— Norway - 1st Division

Matchday 19 ·Wednesday, August 26, 2026, 17:00

ODD Ballklubb

PPG 1.89 · HOME

LAST 5

WDLLW

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Kongsvinger

PPG 1.89 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWWD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.2% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.9%0-14.9%0-24.0%0-32.2%0-4+1.3%1 1-05.5%1-19.1%1-27.5%1-34.1%1-4+2.5%2 2-05.2%2-18.5%2-27.1%2-33.9%2-4+2.3%3 3-03.2%3-15.3%3-24.4%3-32.4%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-13.8%4+-23.2%4+-31.7%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.8% 39.2% 2.55 +11.7%

Draw 21.7% 26.7% 3.75 -11.2%

Away win 34.5% 43.5% 2.30 -20.6%

Over 2.5 68.2% 76.9% 1.30 -11.3%

Over 3.5 45.0% 57.1% 1.75 -21.3%

BTTS 63.1% 80.0% 1.25 -21.1%

Home O1.5 56.3% 60.6% 1.65 -7.1%

Away O1.5 47.9% 63.7% 1.57 -24.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 97 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 26%

ROI 21.6%

Bet Hit 79%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob63.1%

H 44% / xG 1.9-1.7 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.1%

#2 2–1 8.5%

#3 1–2 7.5%

#4 2–2 7.1%

#5 3–1 5.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

ODD Ballklubb1.9

Kongsvinger1.7

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.2% · O3.5 PROB 45.0%

Form & verdict PPG

ODD BALLKLUBB · PPG 1.89

KONGSVINGER · PPG 1.89

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.22 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

ODD Ballklubb (H) 43.8%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV +11.7%

Draw 21.7%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -11.2%

Kongsvinger (A) 34.5%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -20.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

ODD Ballklubb face Kongsvinger in Norway - 1st Division on Wednesday, August 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives ODD Ballklubb a 44% chance, the draw 22% and Kongsvinger 35%, so ODD Ballklubb are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for ODD Ballklubb and 1.7 for Kongsvinger (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, ODD Ballklubb are averaging 1.89 points per game versus 1.89 for Kongsvinger. This match finished 0-1.

ODD Ballklubb vs Kongsvinger Prediction— Norway - 1st Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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