Today / Norway - 1st Division / Moss vs Sogndal

Moss vs Sogndal Prediction— Norway - 1st Division

Matchday 19 ·Wednesday, August 26, 2026, 17:00

Moss

PPG 1.12 · HOME

LAST 5

LDLDL

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Sogndal

PPG 0.56 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWDL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.0 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.2% vs bookmaker-implied 78.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.8%0-13.0%0-22.4%0-31.3%0-4+0.7%1 1-04.4%1-17.1%1-25.7%1-33.0%1-4+1.8%2 2-05.2%2-18.4%2-26.8%2-33.6%2-4+2.1%3 3-04.2%3-16.7%3-25.4%3-32.9%3-4+1.7%4+ 4+-04.4%4+-17.0%4+-25.7%4+-33.0%4+-4+1.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.6% 42.0% 2.38 +20.4%

Draw 21.2% 26.0% 3.85 -11.0%

Away win 28.1% 42.0% 2.38 -19.9%

Over 2.5 68.2% 78.1% 1.28 -12.7%

Over 3.5 48.2% 58.8% 1.70 -18.1%

BTTS 63.1% 80.0% 1.25 -21.1%

Home O1.5 65.8% 63.7% 1.57 +3.3%

Away O1.5 47.9% 63.7% 1.57 -24.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 97 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 26%

ROI 21.6%

Bet Hit 79%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 66%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob63.1%

H 51% / xG 2.4-1.6 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.1%

#2 2–1 8.4%

#3 2–2✓ 6.8%

#4 1–2 5.7%

#5 3–1 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Moss2.4

Sogndal1.6

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.2% · O3.5 PROB 48.2%

Form & verdict PPG

MOSS · PPG 1.12

SOGNDAL · PPG 0.56

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.78 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Moss (H) 50.6%

ODDS 2.38 · IMPLIED 42.0% EV +20.4%

Draw 21.2%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -11.0%

Sogndal (A) 28.1%

ODDS 2.38 · IMPLIED 42.0% EV -19.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Moss face Sogndal in Norway - 1st Division on Wednesday, August 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Moss a 51% chance, the draw 21% and Sogndal 28%, so Moss are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Moss and 1.6 for Sogndal (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Moss are averaging 1.12 points per game versus 0.56 for Sogndal. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +12.4%. This match finished 2-2.

Moss vs Sogndal Prediction— Norway - 1st Division

Match Preview & Prediction

More Norway - 1st Division Predictions