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Haugesund vs Egersund Prediction— Norway - 1st Division

Matchday 19 ·Wednesday, August 26, 2026, 17:00

Haugesund

PPG 2.38 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLWW

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Egersund

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLLD

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 77.3% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.8%0-11.2%0-20.8%0-30.4%0-4+0.2%1 1-02.7%1-13.9%1-22.8%1-31.4%1-4+0.7%2 2-04.6%2-16.6%2-24.8%2-32.3%2-4+1.1%3 3-05.2%3-17.5%3-25.4%3-32.6%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-010.3%4+-114.9%4+-210.8%4+-35.2%4+-4+2.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 64.0% 65.4% 1.53 -2.1%

Draw 15.3% 22.2% 4.50 -18.7%

Away win 20.7% 22.7% 4.40 -5.3%

Over 2.5 76.6% 80.0% 1.25 -4.3%

Over 3.5 56.2% 58.8% 1.70 -4.5%

BTTS 69.2% 76.9% 1.30 -10.0%

Home O1.5 77.3% 76.9% 1.30 +0.5%

Away O1.5 40.9% 46.5% 2.15 -12.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 97 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 26%

ROI 21.6%

Bet Hit 79%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 76%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)3.4 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob69.2%

H 64% / xG 3.4-1.4 / O2.5 77% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 7.5%

#2 2–1 6.6%

#3 4–1 6.3%

#4 2–2 4.8%

#5 1–2 2.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Haugesund3.4

Egersund1.4

COMBINED 4.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 76.6% · O3.5 PROB 56.2%

Form & verdict PPG

HAUGESUND · PPG 2.38

EGERSUND · PPG 0.88

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.94 for Home, form 2.38 vs 0.88 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Haugesund (H) 64.0%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV -2.1%

Draw 15.3%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV -18.7%

Egersund (A) 20.7%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV -5.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Haugesund face Egersund in Norway - 1st Division on Wednesday, August 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Haugesund a 64% chance, the draw 15% and Egersund 21%, so Haugesund are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.4 for Haugesund and 1.4 for Egersund (4.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 77% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Haugesund are averaging 2.38 points per game versus 0.88 for Egersund. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +0.5%. This match finished 3-0.

Haugesund vs Egersund Prediction— Norway - 1st Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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