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Atlanta Utd vs New England Prediction— USA - Major League Soccer

Regular Season - 9 ·Wednesday, April 22, 2026, 23:45

Atlanta Utd

PPG 0.80 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

New England

PPG 0.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 65.2% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6% — a clear edge.

+19.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.5%0-17.6%0-28.4%0-36.1%0-4+5.6%1 1-04.0%1-18.9%1-29.8%1-37.1%1-4+6.5%2 2-02.4%2-15.2%2-25.7%2-34.1%2-4+3.8%3 3-00.9%3-12.0%3-22.2%3-31.6%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.7%4+-20.8%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 19.2% 50.8% 1.97 -62.2%

Draw 19.9% 28.6% 3.50 -30.3%

Away win 60.8% 27.8% 3.60 +118.9%

Over 2.5 65.2% 54.6% 1.83 +19.3%

Over 3.5 43.2% 32.3% 3.10 +33.9%

BTTS 61.1% 58.8% 1.70 +3.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 76 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -3.8%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 60%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)2.2 BTTS prob61.1%

A 61% / xG 1.2-2.2 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2✓ 9.8%

#2 1–1 8.9%

#3 0–2 8.4%

#4 0–1 7.6%

#5 1–3 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Atlanta Utd1.2

New England2.2

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.2% · O3.5 PROB 43.2%

Form & verdict PPG

ATLANTA UTD · PPG 0.80

NEW ENGLAND · PPG 0.00

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

40%

NEUTRAL

No PPG data

Win probability 1X2

Atlanta Utd (H) 19.2%

ODDS 1.97 · IMPLIED 50.8% EV -62.2%

Draw 19.9%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -30.3%

New England (A) 60.8%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV +118.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Atlanta Utd face New England in USA - Major League Soccer on Wednesday, April 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atlanta Utd a 19% chance, the draw 20% and New England 61%, so New England are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Atlanta Utd and 2.2 for New England (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atlanta Utd are averaging 0.80 points per game versus 0.00 for New England. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +118.9%. This match finished 1-2.

Atlanta Utd vs New England Prediction— USA - Major League Soccer

Match Preview & Prediction

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