Atlanta Utd vs New England Prediction— USA - Major League Soccer

USA - Major League Soccer Regular Season - 9 Mercedes-Benz Stadium· Atlanta Wednesday, April 22, 2026 23:45

Atlanta Utd PPG 0.80

1-2 HIT MostLikelyScore

New England PPG 0.00

Away· +118.9% ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

40% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Atlanta Utd face New England in USA - Major League Soccer on Wednesday, April 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atlanta Utd a 19% chance, the draw 20% and New England 61%, so New England are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Atlanta Utd and 2.2 for New England (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atlanta Utd are averaging 0.80 points per game versus 0.00 for New England. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +118.9%. This match finished 1-2.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 19.2%

Odds: 1.97 EV: -62.2%

Draw 19.9%

Odds: 3.50 EV: -30.3%

Away 60.8%

Odds: 3.60 EV: +118.9%

Model lean: Over 2.5

Result: Away ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 65.2% Odds: 1.83 +19.3%

Over 3.5 43.2% Odds: 3.10 +33.9%

BTTS 61.1% Odds: 1.70 +3.9%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-2 ✔

2nd 1-1 ✘

3rd 0-2 ✘

4th 0-1 ✘

5th 1-3 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Atlanta Utd

1.16

New England

2.19

Model SuggestionOver 2.5 +19.3% ROI TRACKS: Over 2.5
Tracked ROI market: Over 2.5. 
Raw EV leader: Away(+118.9%)

League Track Record ↗

Based on 76 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5/Under 61%

BTTS/No 68%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -11.7%

Bet Hit 50% (48 bets)

Verdict & Form

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

40%

NEUTRAL

No PPG data