Today / USA - Major League Soccer / Toronto vs Philadelphia

Toronto vs Philadelphia Prediction— USA - Major League Soccer

Matchday 9 ·Wednesday, April 22, 2026, 23:30

Toronto

PPG 1.80 · HOME

LAST 5

DWDWD

3 – 3

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Philadelphia

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDDW

// Model verdict

Home 50% chance

Model probability 67.8% vs bookmaker-implied 41.7% — a clear edge.

+62.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.0%0-13.7%0-21.7%0-30.5%0-4+0.2%1 1-09.1%1-18.5%1-24.0%1-31.2%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.4%2-19.7%2-24.6%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-07.9%3-17.4%3-23.5%3-31.1%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-07.8%4+-17.3%4+-23.4%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 67.8% 41.7% 2.40 +62.7%

Draw 18.3% 29.4% 3.40 -37.8%

Away win 13.9% 36.0% 2.78 -61.4%

Over 2.5 62.6% 54.6% 1.83 +14.6%

Over 3.5 40.4% 32.3% 3.10 +25.2%

BTTS 54.7% 60.6% 1.65 -9.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 76 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -8.5%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 54%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-3

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob54.7%

H 68% / xG 2.3-0.9 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 10.4%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 1–0 9.1%

#4 1–1 8.5%

#5 3–0 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Toronto2.3

Philadelphia0.9

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.6% · O3.5 PROB 40.4%

Form & verdict PPG

TORONTO · PPG 1.80

PHILADELPHIA · PPG 0.75

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

Chance this pick lands

50%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in GOOD form (1.80), Away POOR (0.75) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Toronto (H) 67.8%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV +62.7%

Draw 18.3%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -37.8%

Philadelphia (A) 13.9%

ODDS 2.78 · IMPLIED 36.0% EV -61.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Toronto face Philadelphia in USA - Major League Soccer on Wednesday, April 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Toronto a 68% chance, the draw 18% and Philadelphia 14%, so Toronto are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Toronto and 0.9 for Philadelphia (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Toronto are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 0.75 for Philadelphia. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +62.7%. This match finished 3-3.

Toronto vs Philadelphia Prediction— USA - Major League Soccer

Match Preview & Prediction

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