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Orlando City vs Charlotte Prediction— USA - Major League Soccer

Regular Season - 9 ·Wednesday, April 22, 2026, 23:30

Orlando City

PPG 0.75 · HOME

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY

Charlotte

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 85.5% vs bookmaker-implied 40.3% — a clear edge.

+112.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.0%0-13.8%0-26.8%0-38.3%0-4+19.3%1 1-01.0%1-13.5%1-26.4%1-37.8%1-4+18.0%2 2-00.5%2-11.7%2-23.0%2-33.6%2-4+8.5%3 3-00.1%3-10.5%3-20.9%3-31.1%3-4+2.6%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.1%4+-20.3%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 5.5% 40.0% 2.50 -86.3%

Draw 9.0% 26.3% 3.80 -65.8%

Away win 85.5% 40.3% 2.48 +112.0%

Over 2.5 83.4% 63.7% 1.57 +30.9%

Over 3.5 66.9% 41.7% 2.40 +60.6%

BTTS 59.2% 67.6% 1.48 -12.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 76 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -3.8%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 4 79%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)3.6 BTTS prob59.2%

A 86% / xG 0.9-3.6 / O2.5 83% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–3 8.3%

#2 1–3 7.8%

#3 0–4 7.5%

#4 1–4 7.0%

#5 0–2 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Orlando City0.9

Charlotte3.6

COMBINED 4.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 83.4% · O3.5 PROB 66.9%

Form & verdict PPG

ORLANDO CITY · PPG 0.75

CHARLOTTE · PPG 1.33

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.33) vs Home POOR (0.75)

Win probability 1X2

Orlando City (H) 5.5%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -86.3%

Draw 9.0%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -65.8%

Charlotte (A) 85.5%

ODDS 2.48 · IMPLIED 40.3% EV +112.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Orlando City face Charlotte in USA - Major League Soccer on Wednesday, April 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Orlando City a 6% chance, the draw 9% and Charlotte 86%, so Charlotte are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Orlando City and 3.6 for Charlotte (4.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-3. There is a 83% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Orlando City are averaging 0.75 points per game versus 1.33 for Charlotte. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +112.0%. This match finished 4-1.

Orlando City vs Charlotte Prediction— USA - Major League Soccer

Match Preview & Prediction

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