Today / USA - Major League Soccer / New York RB vs DC United
New York RB vs DC United Prediction— USA - Major League Soccer
Regular Season - 9 ·Wednesday, April 22, 2026, 23:30
// Model verdict
Home
Model probability 52.4% vs bookmaker-implied 55.2%.
Poisson scoreline matrix
Markets vs the line
League track record ↗
Based on 76 resolved predictions
Correct score prediction
H 52% / xG 1.4-0.8 / U2.5 36% / NoBTTS 40%
Top 5 Poisson scorelines
Expected goals
COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 36.5% · O3.5 PROB 17.2%
Form & verdict
NEW YORK RB · PPG 2.00
DC UNITED · PPG 1.00
Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=52.4%
Win probability
Match Preview & Prediction
New York RB face DC United in USA - Major League Soccer on Wednesday, April 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives New York RB a 52% chance, the draw 28% and DC United 20%, so New York RB are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for New York RB and 0.8 for DC United (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 37% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 40% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, New York RB are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.00 for DC United. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +3.1%. This match finished 4-4.