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New York RB vs DC United Prediction— USA - Major League Soccer

Matchday 9 ·Wednesday, April 22, 2026, 23:30

New York RB

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLDL

4 – 4

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

DC United

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDLLD

// Model verdict

Home 54% chance

Model probability 52.4% vs bookmaker-implied 55.2%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.6%0-18.7%0-23.3%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-016.3%1-112.2%1-24.6%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.4%2-18.6%2-23.2%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-05.3%3-14.0%3-21.5%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-11.9%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.4% 55.2% 1.81 -5.2%

Draw 27.5% 26.7% 3.75 +3.1%

Away win 20.1% 25.0% 4.00 -19.6%

Over 2.5 36.5% 58.8% 1.70 -38.0%

Over 3.5 17.2% 35.7% 2.80 -51.8%

BTTS 39.9% 60.6% 1.65 -34.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 76 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -8.5%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-4

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob39.9%

H 52% / xG 1.4-0.8 / U2.5 36% / NoBTTS 40%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 16.3%

#2 1–1 12.2%

#3 0–0 11.6%

#4 2–0 11.4%

#5 0–1 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

New York RB1.4

DC United0.8

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 36.5% · O3.5 PROB 17.2%

Form & verdict PPG

NEW YORK RB · PPG 2.00

DC UNITED · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

54%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=52.4%

Win probability 1X2

New York RB (H) 52.4%

ODDS 1.81 · IMPLIED 55.2% EV -5.2%

Draw 27.5%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV +3.1%

DC United (A) 20.1%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -19.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

New York RB face DC United in USA - Major League Soccer on Wednesday, April 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives New York RB a 52% chance, the draw 28% and DC United 20%, so New York RB are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for New York RB and 0.8 for DC United (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 37% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 40% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, New York RB are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.00 for DC United. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +3.1%. This match finished 4-4.

New York RB vs DC United Prediction— USA - Major League Soccer

Match Preview & Prediction

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