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New York RB vs DC United Prediction— USA - Major League Soccer

USA - Major League Soccer logo USA flag USA - Major League Soccer Regular Season - 9 Sports Illustrated Stadium· Harrison Wednesday, April 22, 2026 23:30
New York RB logo New York RB PPG 2.00
4-4 MISS
DC United logo DC United PPG 1.00
Draw· +3.1% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value
55% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

New York RB face DC United in USA - Major League Soccer on Wednesday, April 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives New York RB a 52% chance, the draw 28% and DC United 20%, so New York RB are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for New York RB and 0.8 for DC United (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 37% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 40% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, New York RB are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.00 for DC United. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +3.1%. This match finished 4-4.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 52.4%
Odds: 1.81 EV: -5.2%
Draw 27.5%
Odds: 3.75 EV: +3.1%
Away 20.1%
Odds: 4.00 EV: -19.6%
Model lean: Home Not tracked as an official bet.
Result: Draw ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 36.5% Odds: 1.70 -38.0%
Over 3.5 17.2% Odds: 2.80 -51.8%
BTTS 39.9% Odds: 1.65 -34.2%
O2.5 UNDER → OVER ✘ BTTS NO → YES ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-0
2nd 1-1
3rd 0-0
4th 2-0
5th 0-1

Expected Goals (xG)

New York RB
1.40
DC United
0.75

Model Suggestion

Home -5.2% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Home, but EV is -5.2% at these odds — not a recommended bet.
Highest raw EV: Draw (+3.1%) — probability too low to qualify.

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value
55%
HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=52.4%

PredictVantage is for entertainment and informational purposes only. We do not provide financial or betting advice. All predictions are model-generated and do not guarantee any outcome. Gambling involves risk — never bet more than you can afford to lose. Please gamble responsibly. 18+ only. BeGambleAware.org