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New York City vs Cincinnati Prediction— USA - Major League Soccer

Regular Season - 9 ·Wednesday, April 22, 2026, 23:30

New York City

PPG 1.40 · HOME

4 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Cincinnati

PPG 0.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 5.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 92.6% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7% — a clear edge.

+50.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.3%0-10.5%0-20.3%0-30.2%0-4+0.1%1 1-01.4%1-12.0%1-21.4%1-30.7%1-4+0.3%2 2-02.9%2-14.3%2-23.1%2-31.5%2-4+0.8%3 3-04.2%3-16.1%3-24.4%3-32.2%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-014.6%4+-121.1%4+-215.4%4+-37.4%4+-4+3.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 84.0% 55.2% 1.81 +52.0%

Draw 8.7% 26.3% 3.80 -66.9%

Away win 7.2% 25.3% 3.95 -71.6%

Over 2.5 92.6% 61.7% 1.62 +50.0%

Over 3.5 82.5% 39.2% 2.55 +110.4%

BTTS 75.5% 64.5% 1.55 +17.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 76 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -3.8%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 80%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-4

xG (home)4.3 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob75.5%

H 84% / xG 4.3-1.5 / O2.5 93% / BTTS 76%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 4–1 6.6%

#2 3–1 6.1%

#3 5–1 5.6%

#4 4–2 4.8%

#5 4–0 4.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

New York City4.3

Cincinnati1.5

COMBINED 5.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 92.6% · O3.5 PROB 82.5%

Form & verdict PPG

NEW YORK CITY · PPG 1.40

CINCINNATI · PPG 0.25

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in AVERAGE form (1.40), Away POOR (0.25) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

New York City (H) 84.0%

ODDS 1.81 · IMPLIED 55.2% EV +52.0%

Draw 8.7%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -66.9%

Cincinnati (A) 7.2%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -71.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

New York City face Cincinnati in USA - Major League Soccer on Wednesday, April 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives New York City a 84% chance, the draw 9% and Cincinnati 7%, so New York City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 4.3 for New York City and 1.5 for Cincinnati (5.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 4-1. There is a 93% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 76% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, New York City are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 0.25 for Cincinnati. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +110.4%. This match finished 4-4.

New York City vs Cincinnati Prediction— USA - Major League Soccer

Match Preview & Prediction

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