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Columbus Crew vs LA Galaxy Prediction— USA - Major League Soccer

Matchday 9 ·Wednesday, April 22, 2026, 23:30

Columbus Crew

PPG 0.67 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLLL

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

LA Galaxy

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLWDL

// Model verdict

BTTS 64% chance

Model probability 60.8% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.8%0-17.0%0-25.0%0-32.4%0-4+1.2%1 1-07.6%1-111.0%1-28.0%1-33.9%1-4+1.9%2 2-06.1%2-18.8%2-26.3%2-33.1%2-4+1.5%3 3-03.2%3-14.6%3-23.4%3-31.6%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-12.6%4+-21.9%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.1% 57.8% 1.73 -28.9%

Draw 24.1% 24.4% 4.10 -1.2%

Away win 34.9% 25.0% 4.00 +39.6%

Over 2.5 58.5% 64.5% 1.55 -9.3%

Over 3.5 36.1% 42.6% 2.35 -15.2%

BTTS 60.8% 65.4% 1.53 -7.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 76 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -8.5%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 45%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob60.8%

H 41% / xG 1.6-1.4 / O2.5 58% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.0%

#2 2–1✓ 8.8%

#3 1–2 8.0%

#4 1–0 7.6%

#5 0–1 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Columbus Crew1.6

LA Galaxy1.4

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 58.5% · O3.5 PROB 36.1%

Form & verdict PPG

COLUMBUS CREW · PPG 0.67

LA GALAXY · PPG 1.25

⚠ MIXED SIGNALS - Model favors home but form suggests away strength

Chance this pick lands

64%

CAUTION_HOME

Caution: Away form (1.25) strong but model favors Home (P=41.1%)

Win probability 1X2

Columbus Crew (H) 41.1%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -28.9%

Draw 24.1%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -1.2%

LA Galaxy (A) 34.9%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +39.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Columbus Crew face LA Galaxy in USA - Major League Soccer on Wednesday, April 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Columbus Crew a 41% chance, the draw 24% and LA Galaxy 35%, so Columbus Crew are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Columbus Crew and 1.4 for LA Galaxy (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Columbus Crew are averaging 0.67 points per game versus 1.25 for LA Galaxy. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +39.6%. This match finished 2-1.

Columbus Crew vs LA Galaxy Prediction— USA - Major League Soccer

Match Preview & Prediction

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