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Cusco vs FC Cajamarca Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Apertura - 10 ·Wednesday, April 22, 2026, 23:00

Cusco

PPG 1.75 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

FC Cajamarca

PPG 0.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.9 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.0%0-12.4%0-21.5%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-05.4%1-16.5%1-23.9%1-31.6%1-4+0.6%2 2-07.3%2-18.8%2-25.3%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-06.6%3-18.0%3-24.8%3-31.9%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-08.6%4+-110.3%4+-26.2%4+-32.5%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 69.0% — — —

Draw 16.3% — — —

Away win 14.7% — — —

Over 2.5 74.8% — — —

Over 3.5 54.8% — — —

BTTS 65.4% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 10.4%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 80%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.7 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob65.4%

H 69% / xG 2.7-1.2 / O2.5 75% / BTTS 65%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.8%

#2 3–1 8.0%

#3 2–0 7.3%

#4 3–0 6.6%

#5 1–1 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cusco2.7

FC Cajamarca1.2

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 74.8% · O3.5 PROB 54.8%

Form & verdict PPG

CUSCO · PPG 1.75

FC CAJAMARCA · PPG 0.20

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in GOOD form (1.75), Away POOR (0.20) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Cusco (H) 69.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 16.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

FC Cajamarca (A) 14.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Cusco face FC Cajamarca in Peru - Primera División on Wednesday, April 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cusco a 69% chance, the draw 16% and FC Cajamarca 15%, so Cusco are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.7 for Cusco and 1.2 for FC Cajamarca (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 75% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 65% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cusco are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 0.20 for FC Cajamarca. This match finished 1-0.

Cusco vs FC Cajamarca Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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