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Atletico Grau vs S. Cristal Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Apertura - 10 ·Wednesday, April 22, 2026, 20:15

Atletico Grau

PPG 1.25 · HOME

4 – 1

FULL TIME

S. Cristal

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.5%0-115.4%0-210.2%0-34.5%0-4+2.0%1 1-09.5%1-112.7%1-28.5%1-33.8%1-4+1.7%2 2-04.0%2-15.3%2-23.5%2-31.6%2-4+0.7%3 3-01.1%3-11.5%3-21.0%3-30.4%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.4%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 23.3% — — —

Draw 28.2% — — —

Away win 48.5% — — —

Over 2.5 36.6% — — —

Over 3.5 17.3% — — —

BTTS 41.4% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 10.4%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob41.4%

A 48% / xG 0.8-1.3 / U2.5 37% / NoBTTS 41%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 15.4%

#2 1–1 12.7%

#3 0–0 11.5%

#4 0–2 10.2%

#5 1–0 9.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Atletico Grau0.8

S. Cristal1.3

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 36.6% · O3.5 PROB 17.3%

Form & verdict PPG

ATLETICO GRAU · PPG 1.25

S. CRISTAL · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.25), Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Atletico Grau (H) 23.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 28.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

S. Cristal (A) 48.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Atletico Grau face S. Cristal in Peru - Primera División on Wednesday, April 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atletico Grau a 23% chance, the draw 28% and S. Cristal 49%, so S. Cristal are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Atletico Grau and 1.3 for S. Cristal (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 37% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 41% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atletico Grau are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 1.00 for S. Cristal. This match finished 4-1.

Atletico Grau vs S. Cristal Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

More Peru - Primera División Predictions