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Paradiso vs Lugano B Prediction— Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion

Wednesday, April 15, 2026

Paradiso

PPG 1.00 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Lugano B

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.1%0-14.3%0-22.9%0-31.3%0-4+0.6%1 1-06.5%1-19.0%1-26.2%1-32.8%1-4+1.3%2 2-06.8%2-19.4%2-26.5%2-33.0%2-4+1.4%3 3-04.8%3-16.6%3-24.5%3-32.1%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-04.1%4+-15.6%4+-23.8%4+-31.8%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.1% 52.4% 1.91 +3.3%

Draw 21.0% 30.3% 3.30 -30.7%

Away win 24.9% 29.4% 3.40 -15.3%

Over 2.5 67.4% — — —

Over 3.5 45.7% — — —

BTTS 65.5% 64.5% 1.55 +1.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 67 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -3.6%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 61%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob65.5%

H 54% / xG 2.1-1.4 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 66%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.4%

#2 1–1✓ 9.0%

#3 2–0 6.8%

#4 3–1 6.6%

#5 1–0 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Paradiso2.1

Lugano B1.4

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.4% · O3.5 PROB 45.7%

Form & verdict PPG

PARADISO · PPG 1.00

LUGANO B · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.00), Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Paradiso (H) 54.1%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV +3.3%

Draw 21.0%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -30.7%

Lugano B (A) 24.9%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -15.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Paradiso face Lugano B in Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion on Wednesday, April 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Paradiso a 54% chance, the draw 21% and Lugano B 25%, so Paradiso are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Paradiso and 1.4 for Lugano B (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 66% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Paradiso are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.00 for Lugano B. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +3.3%. This match finished 1-1.

Paradiso vs Lugano B Prediction— Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion

Match Preview & Prediction

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