Today / Macedonia - First League / Shkendija vs Bashkimi

Shkendija vs Bashkimi Prediction— Macedonia - First League

Regular Season - 29 ·Monday, April 27, 2026, 14:00

Shkendija

PPG 2.29 · HOME

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Bashkimi

PPG 1.15 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 68.1% vs bookmaker-implied 88.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.7%0-12.2%0-20.7%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-09.9%1-16.0%1-21.8%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.4%2-18.1%2-22.4%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-012.0%3-17.3%3-22.2%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-015.6%4+-19.4%4+-22.9%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 68.1% 88.5% 1.13 -23.1%

Draw 22.3% 18.2% 5.50 +22.7%

Away win 9.5% 5.9% 17.00 +61.5%

Over 2.5 59.0% — — —

Over 3.5 42.0% 45.5% 2.20 -7.6%

BTTS 49.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 32%

ROI 6.8%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 0 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)2.7 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob49.5%

H 68% / xG 2.7-0.6 / O2.5 59% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 13.4%

#2 3–0 12.0%

#3 1–0 9.9%

#4 4–0 8.1%

#5 2–1 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Shkendija2.7

Bashkimi0.6

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.0% · O3.5 PROB 42.0%

Form & verdict PPG

SHKENDIJA · PPG 2.29

BASHKIMI · PPG 1.15

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.29), Away AVERAGE (1.15) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Shkendija (H) 68.1%

ODDS 1.13 · IMPLIED 88.5% EV -23.1%

Draw 22.3%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV +22.7%

Bashkimi (A) 9.5%

ODDS 17.00 · IMPLIED 5.9% EV +61.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Shkendija face Bashkimi in Macedonia - First League on Monday, April 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Shkendija a 68% chance, the draw 22% and Bashkimi 10%, so Shkendija are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.7 for Shkendija and 0.6 for Bashkimi (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Shkendija are averaging 2.29 points per game versus 1.15 for Bashkimi. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +61.5%. This match finished 2-3.

Shkendija vs Bashkimi Prediction— Macedonia - First League

Match Preview & Prediction

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