Today / Croatia - HNL / Istra vs Dinamo Zagreb

Istra vs Dinamo Zagreb Prediction— Croatia - HNL

Matchday 31 ·Wednesday, April 22, 2026, 18:15

Istra

PPG 1.27 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWDL

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Dinamo Zagreb

PPG 2.13 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWWD

// Model verdict

Away 80% chance

Model probability 78.2% vs bookmaker-implied 81.3%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.9%0-18.0%0-211.0%0-310.0%0-4+13.4%1 1-02.3%1-16.3%1-28.7%1-37.9%1-4+10.6%2 2-00.9%2-12.5%2-23.4%2-33.1%2-4+4.2%3 3-00.2%3-10.7%3-20.9%3-30.8%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.2%4+-20.2%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 8.2% 8.7% 11.50 -5.7%

Draw 13.6% 18.9% 5.30 -27.9%

Away win 78.2% 81.3% 1.23 -3.8%

Over 2.5 68.5% 66.7% 1.50 +2.8%

Over 3.5 47.1% 45.5% 2.20 +3.6%

BTTS 51.1% 52.6% 1.90 -2.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -14.8%

Bet Hit 42%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 66%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)2.7 BTTS prob51.1%

A 78% / xG 0.8-2.7 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2✓ 11.0%

#2 0–3 10.0%

#3 1–2 8.7%

#4 0–1 8.0%

#5 1–3 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Istra0.8

Dinamo Zagreb2.7

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.5% · O3.5 PROB 47.1%

Form & verdict PPG

ISTRA · PPG 1.27

DINAMO ZAGREB · PPG 2.13

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

80%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.13) vs Home AVERAGE (1.27)

Win probability 1X2

Istra (H) 8.2%

ODDS 11.50 · IMPLIED 8.7% EV -5.7%

Draw 13.6%

ODDS 5.30 · IMPLIED 18.9% EV -27.9%

Dinamo Zagreb (A) 78.2%

ODDS 1.23 · IMPLIED 81.3% EV -3.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Istra face Dinamo Zagreb in Croatia - HNL on Wednesday, April 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Istra a 8% chance, the draw 14% and Dinamo Zagreb 78%, so Dinamo Zagreb are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Istra and 2.7 for Dinamo Zagreb (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 69% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Istra are averaging 1.27 points per game versus 2.13 for Dinamo Zagreb. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +3.6%. This match finished 0-2.

Istra vs Dinamo Zagreb Prediction— Croatia - HNL

Match Preview & Prediction

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