Istra vs Dinamo Zagreb Prediction— Croatia - HNL

Croatia - HNL Regular Season - 31 Stadion Aldo Drosina· Pula Wednesday, April 22, 2026 18:15

Istra PPG 1.27

0-2 HIT MostLikelyScore

Dinamo Zagreb PPG 2.13

Over3.5· +3.6% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Istra face Dinamo Zagreb in Croatia - HNL on Wednesday, April 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Istra a 8% chance, the draw 14% and Dinamo Zagreb 78%, so Dinamo Zagreb are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Istra and 2.7 for Dinamo Zagreb (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 69% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Istra are averaging 1.27 points per game versus 2.13 for Dinamo Zagreb. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +3.6%. This match finished 0-2.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 8.2%

Odds: 11.50 EV: -5.7%

Draw 13.6%

Odds: 5.30 EV: -27.9%

Away 78.2%

Odds: 1.23 EV: -3.8%

Model lean: Away Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Away ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 68.5% Odds: 1.50 +2.8%

Over 3.5 47.1% Odds: 2.20 +3.6%

BTTS 51.1% Odds: 1.90 -2.9%

O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 0-2 ✔

2nd 0-3 ✘

3rd 1-2 ✘

4th 0-1 ✘

5th 1-3 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Istra

0.79

Dinamo Zagreb

2.74

Model SuggestionAway -3.8% EXCLUDED FROM ROI
ROI tracking: excluded — EV is negative (-3.8%), so the model expects this bet to lose money at the offered odds.

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.13) vs Home AVERAGE (1.27)