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NK Celje vs NK Olimpija Prediction— Slovenia - 1. SNL

Wednesday, April 15, 2026

NK Celje

PPG 2.54 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

NK Olimpija

PPG 1.69 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 64.4% vs bookmaker-implied 52.1% — a clear edge.

+23.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.4%0-15.9%0-21.8%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-016.3%1-110.2%1-23.2%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.2%2-18.9%2-22.8%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-08.2%3-15.2%3-21.6%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-05.3%4+-13.3%4+-21.0%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 64.4% 52.1% 1.92 +23.6%

Draw 22.7% 30.3% 3.30 -25.1%

Away win 12.9% 26.7% 3.75 -51.6%

Over 2.5 42.2% 57.8% 1.73 -27.0%

Over 3.5 21.5% 36.4% 2.75 -40.9%

BTTS 38.4% 63.7% 1.57 -39.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 74%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 37%

ROI 30.6%

Bet Hit 82%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 55%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob38.4%

H 64% / xG 1.7-0.6 / U2.5 42% / NoBTTS 38%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 16.3%

#2 2–0✓ 14.2%

#3 1–1 10.2%

#4 0–0 9.4%

#5 2–1 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

NK Celje1.7

NK Olimpija0.6

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.2% · O3.5 PROB 21.5%

Form & verdict PPG

NK CELJE · PPG 2.54

NK OLIMPIJA · PPG 1.69

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

95%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.54) vs P(Home)=64.4%

Win probability 1X2

NK Celje (H) 64.4%

ODDS 1.92 · IMPLIED 52.1% EV +23.6%

Draw 22.7%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -25.1%

NK Olimpija (A) 12.9%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -51.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

NK Celje face NK Olimpija in Slovenia - 1. SNL on Wednesday, April 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives NK Celje a 64% chance, the draw 23% and NK Olimpija 13%, so NK Celje are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for NK Celje and 0.6 for NK Olimpija (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 42% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 38% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, NK Celje are averaging 2.54 points per game versus 1.69 for NK Olimpija. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +23.6%. This match finished 2-0.

NK Celje vs NK Olimpija Prediction— Slovenia - 1. SNL

Match Preview & Prediction

More Slovenia - 1. SNL Predictions