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O'Higgins vs Palestino Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Matchday 20 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 23:00

O'Higgins

PPG 1.33 · HOME

LAST 5

WLDLL

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Palestino

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWWL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 61.2% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+7.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.7%0-17.4%0-24.8%0-32.1%0-4+0.9%1 1-09.0%1-111.6%1-27.5%1-33.2%1-4+1.4%2 2-07.0%2-19.1%2-25.9%2-32.5%2-4+1.1%3 3-03.7%3-14.8%3-23.1%3-31.3%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-12.6%4+-21.7%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.8% 43.5% 2.30 -1.6%

Draw 23.6% 30.3% 3.30 -13.3%

Away win 33.6% 37.0% 2.70 -9.3%

Over 2.5 59.7% 52.6% 1.90 +13.4%

Over 3.5 36.6% 30.8% 3.25 +18.9%

BTTS 61.2% 57.1% 1.75 +7.1%

Home O1.5 46.1% 45.5% 2.20 +1.4%

Away O1.5 37.3% 38.2% 2.62 -2.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 78 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 37%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 30%

ROI 5.6%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob61.2%

H 43% / xG 1.6-1.3 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 2–1 9.1%

#3 1–2 7.5%

#4 1–0 9.0%

#5 2–0 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

O'Higgins1.6

Palestino1.3

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.6%

Form & verdict PPG

O'HIGGINS · PPG 1.33

PALESTINO · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.28 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

O'Higgins (H) 42.8%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -1.6%

Draw 23.6%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -13.3%

Palestino (A) 33.6%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -9.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

O'Higgins face Palestino in Chile - Primera División on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives O'Higgins a 43% chance, the draw 24% and Palestino 34%, so O'Higgins are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for O'Higgins and 1.3 for Palestino (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, O'Higgins are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.00 for Palestino. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +18.9%. This match finished 0-1.

O'Higgins vs Palestino Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

More Chile - Primera División Predictions