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Coritiba vs Corinthians Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Matchday 24 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 22:30

Coritiba

PPG 1.36 · HOME

LAST 5

LWDWW

2 – 1

FULL TIME

Corinthians

PPG 1.27 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWLLL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.3%0-111.4%0-25.3%0-31.6%0-4+0.5%1 1-014.4%1-113.3%1-26.2%1-31.9%1-4+0.5%2 2-08.4%2-17.8%2-23.6%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-03.3%3-13.0%3-21.4%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.1%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.6% 32.3% 3.10 +29.0%

Draw 28.9% 35.7% 2.80 -11.5%

Away win 29.5% 41.7% 2.40 -17.5%

Over 2.5 42.7% 38.5% 2.60 +11.0%

Over 3.5 20.6% 20.0% 5.00 +1.8%

BTTS 47.6% 50.0% 2.00 -4.8%

Home O1.5 31.8% 28.6% 3.50 +11.3%

Away O1.5 24.7% 33.3% 3.00 -15.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 131 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 2.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob47.6%

H 42% / xG 1.2-0.9 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.3%

#2 1–0 14.4%

#3 0–0 12.3%

#4 0–1 11.4%

#5 2–0 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Coritiba1.2

Corinthians0.9

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.7% · O3.5 PROB 20.6%

Form & verdict PPG

CORITIBA · PPG 1.36

CORINTHIANS · PPG 1.27

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.24, combined xG 2.09 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Coritiba (H) 41.6%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +29.0%

Draw 28.9%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -11.5%

Corinthians (A) 29.5%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -17.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Coritiba face Corinthians in Brazil - Serie A on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Coritiba a 42% chance, the draw 29% and Corinthians 30%, so Coritiba are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Coritiba and 0.9 for Corinthians (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Coritiba are averaging 1.36 points per game versus 1.27 for Corinthians. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +35.2%. This match finished 2-1.

Coritiba vs Corinthians Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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