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Comerciantes U. vs Alianza A. Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Apertura - 10 ·Wednesday, April 22, 2026, 18:00

Comerciantes U.

PPG 1.60 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Alianza A.

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.60) vs P(Home)=57.0%

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.9%0-17.1%0-22.8%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-014.4%1-111.5%1-24.6%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.7%2-19.3%2-23.7%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-06.3%3-15.1%3-22.0%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.7%4+-13.0%4+-21.2%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.0% — — —

Draw 24.7% — — —

Away win 18.3% — — —

Over 2.5 43.6% — — —

Over 3.5 22.6% — — —

BTTS 44.1% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 10.4%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob44.1%

H 57% / xG 1.6-0.8 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0✓ 14.4%

#2 2–0 11.7%

#3 1–1 11.5%

#4 2–1 9.3%

#5 0–0 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Comerciantes U.1.6

Alianza A.0.8

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.6% · O3.5 PROB 22.6%

Form & verdict PPG

COMERCIANTES U. · PPG 1.60

ALIANZA A. · PPG 0.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.60) vs P(Home)=57.0%

Win probability 1X2

Comerciantes U. (H) 57.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Alianza A. (A) 18.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Comerciantes U. face Alianza A. in Peru - Primera División on Wednesday, April 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Comerciantes U. a 57% chance, the draw 25% and Alianza A. 18%, so Comerciantes U. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Comerciantes U. and 0.8 for Alianza A. (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Comerciantes U. are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 0.50 for Alianza A.. This match finished 1-0.

Comerciantes U. vs Alianza A. Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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